The Mt. Shasta Avalanche Center - US Forest Service                  

THE BOTTOM LINE:

Avalanche Danger Rating* for today:

Trend over the next 7 days:  The avalanche danger should stay near the same for the next week. However, any new snow on top of our current snowpack will likely cause the avalanche danger to increase.

 Where:   LOW avalanche danger on all aspects and elevations.

Primary Concern: Isolated pockets of wind deposited snow, above 11,000 feet

Secondary Concerns:  New snow on top of firm, old snow

Size and Character: Isolated wind slabs above 11,000 ft will be small in size and chunky

Sensitivity to Triggering:  Isolated wind slabs will be stubborn to unreactive to trigger.

Confidence in today's forecast:

The Details:

This Season:   We currently sit in moderate La Nina conditions and it's expected to continue through the winter of 2011-2012. Mt. Shasta, for the month of December, has received 0.07 inches of precipitation! Normal is 7.34. Since September 1st, we are 30% of normal and for the month, we are just shy of 1% of normal. January has been dry thus far. Powder days have been in the form of good ice skating...fantastic ice has formed over the winter at various local lakes. Castle, Cliff, Gumboot and Toad lakes have all held fantastic ice skating.

Weather Observations: Mild temperatures and partly cloudy skies in town this morning..
On Mt. Shasta:  In the Old Ski Bowl (7,600') on the south side of Mt.Shasta, we have no new snow and about 11 inches of snow on the ground with a current temperature of 34 F. . Temperatures have average between 32 and 43 F.  At Grey Butte (8,000') on the south side of Mt. Shasta winds have averaged 15-20 mph from the NW over the last 24 hours with gusts to 42 mph from the NW.  Current temperature is 35 F and have averaged 33-41 F.
Castle/Mt. Eddy:   Castle Lake No new snow at Castle and a couple inches of settlement over the last week. We currently have about 6 inches on the ground with a current temp of 34 F.  Temperatures have averaged 31-39 F .  On Mt Eddy, No new snow and about 12 inches of snow on the ground. Temps have averaged 31-41 F and the current temp is 34 F. Winds have averaged 2 mph with a gust of 5 mph from the WSW in the last 24 hours.

Weather Forecast:  To many folks dismay, partly cloudy to clear skies are expected for this weekend. Temps near and above treeline this weekend will be in the high 20's to mid 30's. Below treeline, temps will be near 40 F and warming as Sunday approaches. Expect NW winds to pick up tonight and increase into Saturday above treeline. Warm temps and calm winds will host Sunday and into the work week. Our next look at any form of precipitation points to next week. Monday night into Tuesday could bring us a bit of snow on the mountain and higher elevations. Accumulation could be a couple inches. Otherwise, high pressure prevails and winter continues to stall!

Snowpack: I sit here again trying to think of something creative, informative and interesting to say regarding the snowpack, but it's tough when there is not much to speak of! Argh! Our lack of snow is becoming quite comical to some...and maddening to others! Anywhere from bare dirt, rocks and shrubs to 35 cm of snow exists in the Mt. Shasta area backcountry. Most south facing, sunny aspects below 6,000 feet are devoid of snow. Patchy conditions exist up all the way to about 10,000 feet. On the upper mountain, wind has swept much of the snow off the mountain, and what snow does exist lies in many of the gullies and wind eddies. The well developed facets (aka 'sugar snow') that we've been seeing have taken a bit of a hit with this past weeks warm temps. Much of the snowpack has consolidated and most areas host a shallow, hard layer of snow. Some faceted snow still exists in the snowpack in very isolated, cold, north facing aspects. I will keep an eye on these layers once we receive any new snow. Skiing is at a standstill and I think it's safe to say most folks shreddin' stick(s) are in still in the closet.

 

Link to video of facet layer at Cliff Lake


Example of faceted snow a.k.a. "sugar snow", notice angular, obtuse sides           Photo: Google Images

Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park:  NEED SNOW! One can still drive a 2wd vehicle all the way through Military Pass Road.

Please report weather and snow observations- you could help save a life:  (530)926-9614  Thanks!