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Avalanche Advisory for 2015-02-22 06:41:06

  • EXPIRED ON February 23, 2015 @ 6:41 am
    Published on February 22, 2015 @ 6:41 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

The avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. 

Normal caution advised.

Smooth and firm conditions exists on the upper mountain allowing for slide-for-life potential should one slip and fall. Self arrest skills mandatory. DO NOT attempt to glissade in these conditions.

Ice fall is a concern as it breaks off exposed rocks above. Wear a helmet. Ice chuncks can be just as hard as rocks!

 

 

 

 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Carry a beacon, shovel and probe and know how to use them. 

Should one slip and fall, self arrest skills mandatory on the steep, upper mountain slopes of Shasta. Slide for life potential is present, especially as temperatures cool and northerly wind picks up and keeps the snowpack firm and icy. Mid and upper elevation slopes may not soften. DO NOT attempt to glissade in these conditions.

Watch for ice fall off exposed rocks above. Wear a helmet. Avalanche Gulch, above Lake Helen and all the way through Redbanks is unofficially called, "The Bowling Alley". You get the picture.

 

 

 

Recent Observations

Flip flops and sun hats have been getting good use lately, but for the next few days, wooly boots and knit caps might be best! Temperatures this morning in Mt Shasta are near freezing and are expected to cool further during daylight hours today. Also of note is wind; imagine that on Shasta! :) Northeast flow currently prevails and began to rear its head at 1800 hours last night. Gray Butte, 8,000 feet, has recorded 30 mph average wind speeds with gusts to near 50 mph with temps in the high teens this morning. All this is expected to continue through today (Sunday) and Monday which will mean wind chill temps could reach as low as -10 F at the 8,000 to 10,000 foot level. For climbers, expect even colder wind chill factors on the upper mountain, as low as -25 F. While the skies are clear, winter like conditions will be present on the mountain and the dangerous effects of wind and cold air should not be underestimated.

Shastafarians are feeling fortunate that Mt Shasta, tall and proud, sets itself apart from the surrounding landscape as an island of snow. Due to lack of snow elsewhere in the state, increased use by all users on the mountain have many areas, might I say, tracked out! While we're not talking moguls here, we are saying that a lot of folks have been makin' tracks in Shasta's amazing corn snow. Corn skiing and riding has been the soup de jour and we are glad folks have been enjoying it. A reminder for everyone: Bunny Flat is a multi-use trailhead. Skiers, climbers, hikers, cross country skiers, snowmobilers and spiritual seekers all use the trailhead and yes, it can and has been quite busy on weekends. We like to think that common sense is common, but sometimes it's not. Park reasonably and responsibly, be patient, and respect all users. Once the Bunny Flat vicinity is escaped, one will likely find solace in the beautiful and scenic Mt Shasta Wilderness. South and southeast aspects, low to mid elevations have been the only areas softening during the recent days. Wind and cold temps will diminish snow quality for the next few days and likely keep most areas a bit firm. Slopes with direct, perpendicular sun rays and trending lower in elevation will be best.

Given our cooling trend, snow instabilities are going to be tough to come by. Yesterday, we divided and conquered with tours into Old Ski Bowl, Gray Butte and Avalanche Gulch. It was tough to even get a shovel in the snow and no instabilities were observed. We've got a rock solid snowpack as we wait another week for a chance of new snow. Wind has been blowing snow around, but not a big concern as most of the blowing snow has consisted of small ice particles that are not bonding and/or forming wind slabs. One may find very small pockets of wind deposited snow in extreme terrain above treeline, but it's likely that most areas will simply be scoured, firm and icy. As of now and for the next several days, the avalanche danger remains LOW for all aspects and elevations. However, keep it in the back of your avalanche mind that new snow with wind (almost always a factor on Shasta!), on top of a smooth, firm bed surface, could make a recipe for avalanches in the coming weeks. 

Climbing conditions are excellent right now. That said, it's still winter and that means cold temps, wind chill factor, ice fall, smooth/firm snow and also the chance of winter storms that can set in for days. If you choose to climb or ski high on the mountain, be prepared. Bring the ten essentials, carry a beacon, shovel and probe as well as an ice axe, crampons and helmet. Greatest concerns right now are: Exposed rocks that are plastered with rime ice... these chunks of rime ice continously flake off onto climbers/skiers below. Regardless of warm or cold temperatures, it seems that these chunks of ice are always shedding and bombing down the slope onto unsuspecting climbers. The best way to avoid this hazard is a) wear a helmet b) look uphill and c) stay out of the main fall line. The second concern for climbers and skiers venturing onto mid/upper mountain steep slopes, is the smooth and firm snow surface creating slide-for-life condtions. Self arrest skills are mandatory should one slip and fall. The bottom line: Proper prior preparation prevents poor performance! Again, be prepared and know how to use all your equipment.

Report your observations to the MSAC! A photo, a few words... send them in! (nimeyers@fs.fed.us or 530-926-9614)

Castle Lake area has a shallow snowpack. Skiing is out of the question at this point due to lack of snow. 

Sand Flat Winter Trails: OPEN, trail conditions are firm and getting thin with some tree debris on snow surface. 

Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park: OPEN, however due to lack of low elevation snow, one must drive up the road several miles before enough snow is encountered. One CANNOT DRIVE over Military Pass. Snowmobiling is not recommended due to low snow depths.

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Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

SnowpackIf snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.

The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include:  1) Recent/current avalanche activity  2) Whumpfing sounds or shooting cracks  3) Recent/current heavy snowfall  4) Strong winds transporting snow  5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.

 


 

    Weather and Current Conditions

    Weather Summary

    In Mt Shasta City this morning at 0500, we have clear skies and a current temperature of 30 F degrees.

    WEATHER STATION INFORMATION (0500hrs):

    On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

    Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 16 F. Snow on the ground totals 90 inches with no settlement. Temperatures in the last 24 hours have ranged from 16 F to 41 F.   

    Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, The current temperature is 19 F and temps have ranged from 19 F to 37 F in the last 24 hours. Winds in the last 24 hours averaged 6-8 mph and variable in direction up until 1800 when they picked up and have been averaging 20-30 mph with gusts to 49 mph, all out of the northeast.

    Castle Lake and Mt Eddy (West side of Interstate-5)... 

    Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 24 F. Temps have ranged from 24 F to 41 F in the last 24 hours. The Castle Lake area has 10 inches of snow on the ground, and is patchy. 

    Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 19 F. Temps have ranged from 19 F to 38 F in the last 24 hours. Current snow depth is 30 inches with no settlement.  Winds have averaged 2 mph, with gusts to 12 mph, southwest.

    WEATHER SYNOPSIS: Cold air and windy conditions are going to chill the area today and tomorrow. Northeast flow aloft will allow for blustery winds above treeline on the mountain and we are already seeing this from weather station information this morning. At about 1800, northeast winds picked up and have averaged 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. These winds will continue through Monday before beginning to taper off. Temperatures are falling as we speak and daytime highs will start near 23 F for the 10,000 foot level and fall by 5-8 F degrees by later this afternoon. All this means that, while we won't see any precipitation, winter like conditions are back for the moment. Wind chill factors for climbers and skiers will be as low as -10 F today. Do not underestimate the dangerous effects of wind. Be prepared!

    The extended forecast is mixed... though it's likely that we'll move into a cool and wet period. Next weekend, forecasts are predicting northerly flow with short wave sliders bringing clouds and chance of rain and snow. Northerly storms for us usually mean cool temps, good for low elevation snow, albeit light precipitation amounts. We'll have to just wait and see! 

    THIS SEASON: Since October 1st (the wet season) , we have received 30.10 inches of water, normal is 27.60 inches, putting us at 109% of normal. For the month of February, we sit at 10.10 inches of water, normal is 5.33, putting us at 189% of normal. For the year of 2015, we've received 10.58 inches water, normal is 12.39, equalling 85% of normal. 

    Looking back into 2014, Mt Shasta finished off with 34.36 inches of water with normal being 43.21 inches, leaving us at 79% of normal for the year. For the month of December, Mt Shasta finished at 163% of normal, receiving 12.83 inches of water, normal is 7.85 inches. 

    Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

    CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
    0600 temperature: 16
    Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 41
    Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: Northeast
    Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 6-8mph increasing to 20-25 mph mi/hr
    Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 49 mi/hr
    New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
    Total snow depth: 90 inches

    Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

    Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

    For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
      Sunday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Sunday Night
    (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
    Monday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Weather Sunny and breezy Clear Sunny
    Temperature (°F) 37 14 39
    Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 10-15 mph, gusty East/Northeast 10-20 mph, blustery East/Northeast 10-20 mph, blustery
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
    For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
      Sunday Sunday Night Monday
    Weather Sunny Clear Sunny
    Temperature (°F) 23 and falling 5 31
    Wind (mi/hr) East/Northeast 20-30 mph with gusts 50-60 mph, wind chill as low as -10 F Northeast 0 East/Northeast 40-50 mph, with gusts higher
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

    Disclaimer

    This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.