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Avalanche Advisory for 2017-03-02 05:01:56

  • EXPIRED ON March 3, 2017 @ 5:01 am
    Published on March 2, 2017 @ 5:01 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Areas of MODERATE avalanche danger are expected today above treeline. While winds have died off considerably, some areas could still host lingering, isolated wind slabs. Below treeline and near treeline, the avalanche danger is LOW.

 

 

 

 

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

While we do not suspect much in the way of new wind slab development over the past 24 hours, existing slabs may still lurk out there, primarily above treeline. Look for clues indicating the most recent drifting snow such as snow surface patterning (sastrugi) and newly formed wind pillows. Avoid suspect areas on slopes 35 degrees and steeper.

 

 

 

Forecast Discussion

Our snowpack continues to stabilize as a result of little wind and warm temperatures. This is not the full green light for the backcountry however. Continue to use your brain and make safe travel choices and identify features of concern. Today should be a beautiful day. Smile and enjoy.

 

Recent Observations

Temperatures observed this morning are 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Winds are remarkably calm on Gray Butte. Observations within the forecast area have revealed little in the way of signs of ongoing slab instability. Recent wind slab activity has occurred in Sun Bowl on Mt Shasta, however similar locations have not produced any further signs of continuing unstable wind slabs. A couple days of direct sun exposure and warm daytime highs has helped consolidate and stabilize the snowpack. Some areas have become increasingly dense and crusted. 

 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Today will bring a carbon copy of yesterday before we begin to move back into a cooler and wetter period of weather this weekend. Expect nearly identical temperatures, wind and sky cover today. This weekend is likely our last brush with winter for lower elevations. Following this storm, models trend for warmer weather and Spring will begin to fill the air. Enjoy this beautiful day.

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In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 25 F.

On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

Old Ski Bowl - 7,600ft, the current temperture is 26 degrees F.  Temperatures have ranged from 16 F to 42 F.  Snow on the ground totals 185 inches with no new snow and 2 inches of settlement.

Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 26 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 17 F to 33 F.  Winds have been variable at 5 mph with gusts to 21 mph.

Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)... 

Castle Lake - 5,800 feet, the current temperature is 32 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 22 F to 48 F. Snow on the ground totals 109 with no new snow and little settlement.

Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 21 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 18 F to 39 F. Snow on the ground measures 106 inches with no new snow and  1 inch of settlement. Winds have been calm, averaging 3 mph with gusts up to 6,  variable in direction

THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 43.31 inches of water, normal is 29.76 inches, putting us at 145% of normal.  For the month of March, we have received 0.0 inches of water, normal is .26, which is 0% of normal. And finally for the year of 2017, we received 22.15 inches of water, normal is 14.55 inches, putting us at 152% of normal.

Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
0600 temperature: 29
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 45
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: Variable
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 0-5 mi/hr
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 5-10 mi/hr
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
Total snow depth: 118 inches

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Thursday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Friday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Partly cloudy A 20 percent chance of snow after 10am. Partly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 44 29 39
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast, becoming southwest 5-10 mph West, becoming south/southeast 10-15 mph South/southwest 10-15 mph
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Sunny. Windy. Partly cloudy. Windy. A 30 percent chance of snow after 10am. Partly sunny, temperatures falling. Windy. Wind chill values as low as -5.
Temperature (°F) 26 22 19
Wind (mi/hr) West/Southwest 15-20 mph West 0 Southwest 20-25 mph
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0-1

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.