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Avalanche Advisory for 2017-12-18 06:55:42

  • EXPIRED ON December 19, 2017 @ 6:55 am
    Published on December 18, 2017 @ 6:55 am
  • Issued by Andrew Kiefer - Mt Shasta Avalanche Center

LOW avalanche danger continues throughout the advisory area. Firm and icy snow surfaces are widespread, and climbers should exercise caution in alpine terrain on Mount Shasta. The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch in effect Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
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  • Size ?
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Avalanche conditions remain generally safe, and normal caution is advised. Avalanche rescue skills are always essential when you travel in avalanche terrain. There is always some risk in the backcountry, and even traveling on low danger days is not a 100% guarantee of safety.

- Carry a beacon, shovel, and probe.

- Watch for isolated pockets of instability.

- Pay attention to changing snow and weather conditions.

- Bring crampons, an ice axe, and a helmet if you plan to travel in alpine terrain on Mount Shasta.

Forecast Discussion

Our snowpack is aged and scrappy. It is so icy and firm that even traveling on low angle slopes can feel insecure. It is no surprise that triggering an avalanche is unlikely right now. Change is coming, though. The storm Tuesday looks to end December’s dry spell and bring a small refresh to the backcountry. If we hit the higher end of the forecasted snow totals, expect the avalanche danger to rise on Wednesday.

Recent Observations

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Mostly clear skies and strong and steady north winds brought little change to the advisory area yesterday. Our snowpack continues to consolidate and strengthen, and no signs of instability have been observed in weeks. Dangerously slick snow surfaces exist near and above treeline on Mount Shasta. Very little snow exists below the 6,500ft elevation throughout the advisory area. Recent north winds have scoured windward slopes and exposed features down to bare ground in terrain 10,000ft and higher. Lately, skiing, riding, and climbing conditions have been challenging.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Expect mostly sunny skies today with highs around 50 degrees at the 6,000ft level. Temperature inversions have returned, bringing colder air to the valleys and warmer air to higher elevations. Over the next 48 hours, winds will shift from the north to west/southwest and remain strong and gusty. An end to the December drought is in sight. The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. The majority of the advisory area is expected to receive a quarter of an inch of water, which could translate to 3-7 inches of snow. Freezing levels will be near 3500ft by Tuesday night. Skies look to clear up mid-day on Wednesday.  

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THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 5.72 inches of water, normal is 11.48 inches, putting us at 50% of normal. For the month of December, we have received .18 inches of water, normal is 4.12 inches, which is 4% of normal. And finally for the year of 2017, we received 44.71 inches of water, normal is 39.48 inches, putting us at 113% of normal.

Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 0700

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 28 28 46 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 41 25 42 35 14 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 37 22 51 30 17 0 0 1 station down
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 36 23 36 29 10 37 WSW station down
Castle Lake (5870 ft) station down
Mount Eddy (6509 ft)
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Monday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Mostly Sunny Partly Cloudy Windy. Partly sunny then snow likely after 4pm. Chance of snow 60%.
Temperature (°F) 49 28 40
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 10-13 mph, gusting 20 mph South 10-17 mph, gusting 26 mph South 24-33 mph, gusting 50 mph
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / <1 inch
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather Mostly Sunny and Windy Partly Cloudy and Windy Partly sunny and windy. Snow likely after 4pm. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind chill values as low as -26.
Temperature (°F) 31 30 30
Wind (mi/hr) West 31-40 mph, gusting 60 mph West/Southwest 0 Southwest 65-75 mph, gusting 115 mph
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / <1 inch

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mount Shasta, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.