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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-01-31 04:03:37

  • EXPIRED ON February 1, 2018 @ 4:03 am
    Published on January 31, 2018 @ 4:03 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
  • January 31, 2018 @ 4:03 am

    Advisory Hotline: (530) 926-9613

  • Avalanche danger is LOW. Wind slabs may be found in isolated areas above 9000 ft on SE-E-NE slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Watch out for falling rime ice above treeline.

  • Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Natural and human triggered wind slabs are unlikely. Small wind slabs may be found in isoloated areas on SE-E-NE aspects above 9000 ft. Avoid wind loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Check for the presence of wind slabs by looking for cornices, blowing snow, wind pillows, and hollow sounding snow.

Advisory Discussion

Alpine rock features on Mount Shasta are covered with rime ice. Warming weather may cause this ice to dislodge and fall. Be careful below Casaval Ridge, the Trinity Chutes, and Redbanks. Wear a helmet and stay vigilant.

Recent Observations

Temperatures have been above freezing (35-43 °F) at 8000 ft for the last 24 hours. Moderate to strong northwest winds (21-34 mph) have likely kept snow surfaces cool and unchanged. Expect variable snow surfaces below 9500 ft. Skiers found favorable conditions above 10,000 ft yesterday. No new avalanches have been seen since Saturday.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A weak warm front will bring a slight chance of precipitation tomorrow morning. The high pressure ridge off the coast shows no signs of breaking in the coming week. Expect warm and dry conditions to prevail for the next 10 days.

One month and three month climate outlooks indicate normal precipitation and temperatures providing some hope that winter will return to the area.

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured Normal Percent of Normal
From Oct 1, 2017 (the wet season) 10.11 22.06 46
Month to Date (since Feb 1, 2018) 4.28 6.85 62
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2018) 4.28 6.85 62

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 35 30 57 43 1 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 38 37 45 40 24 0 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 39 37 47 40 44 0 0 1
Grey Butte (8000 ft) 37 35 43 38 28 55 NW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 38 37 52 42 12 0 1
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 37 34 48 40 2 11 SSW 25 0 1
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather Mostly sunny. Mostly cloudy. Mostly cloudy.
Temperatures 47 deg. F. 37 deg. F. 50 deg. F.
Wind direction West West/Northwest West/Northwest
Wind speed 5 mph 5 mph 5 mph
Expected snowfall 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather Mostly sunny. Windy A 10 percent chance of snow after 4 a.m. Mostly cloudy. Windy. A 20 percent chance of snow before 10 a.m. Windy.
Temperatures 33 deg. F. 30 deg. F. 33 deg. F.
Wind direction West/Northwest West Northwest
Wind speed 25-30 mph, gusts to 40 25-30 mph, gusts to 40 25-30 mph, gusts to 40
Expected snowfall 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mount Shasta, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.