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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-02-04 06:11:52

  • EXPIRED ON February 5, 2018 @ 6:11 am
    Published on February 4, 2018 @ 6:11 am
  • Issued by Andrew Kiefer - Mt Shasta Avalanche Center
  • February 4, 2018 @ 6:11 am

    Advisory Hotline: (530) 926-9613

  • The avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects throughout the forecast area. Avalanches are unlikely and NORMAL CAUTION is advised. Be especially careful of falling rime ice in upper elevation terrain on Mount Shasta.

  • Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

NORMAL CAUTION means:

  • Always watch for isolated slabs.
  • Ski and ride one at a time in avalanche terrain.
  • Don't regroup in run out zones.
  • Basic avalanche rescue skills are essential in avalanche terrain.

Isolated slabs are generally related to wind and terrain. Look for places where small areas of drifting have occurred and firm layers of surface snow overlie softer layers. Often this will occur on the lee side of ridges, in terrain depressions, on convex terrain features and in the lee of isolated bands of trees.

Advisory Discussion

Coverage on Mount Shasta is still good, and our snowpack has been surprisingly resilient to the record-breaking warm weather. A melt-freeze cycle is beginning, and spring-like corn snow conditions can be found with good planning. Continue to exercise normal caution. There is always some degree of risk, and even traveling on a LOW danger day is not a 100% guarantee of safety. Rime icefall remains a significant hazard, especially in Avalanche Gulch below Redbanks and the Trinity Chutes.

Recent Observations

  • For 8 consecutive days, temperatures have remained above freezing up to 8,000 ft.
  • No avalanches or signs of instability have been observed in several days.
  • A usable snowpack exists above 6,500 ft with a range in snow height of 1-4 ft.
  • Variable snow surfaces exist including wind eroded features, supportable crusts, and firm icy areas.
  • Below 8,000 ft, moist, unconsolidated snow can be found.
  • Rime ice continues to fall from high elevation rock formations on Mount Shasta.
  • A corn-like cycle is beginning with the best skiing and riding conditions found on south and east aspects by mid-day.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Unseasonably warm and dry weather continues. Today, expect sunny skies, highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, and moderate northwest winds. High pressure off the coast of California looks to block any chance of precipitation during the first half of February. Visit the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for long-term outlooks on temperature and precipitation.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 6:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 38 37 62 51 4 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 32 32 50 38 21 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 38.5 38 53 42 41 0 0 .5
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 41 38 49 43 5 18 SSW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 45 42 48 45 9 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 43 41 47 44 3 14 S 22 0 1
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather Sunny Mostly clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 56 35 48
Wind Direction North/Northwest North/Northwest North
Wind Speed (mi/hr) 5-10 mi/hr 5-10 mi/hr 10-15 mi/hr
Expected Snowfall (in) 0 0 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather Sunny and windy Mostly clear and windy Sunny and windy
Temperature (°F) 32 29 29
Wind Direction North/Northwest North/Northwest North/Northwest
Wind Speed (mi/hr) 15-20 mi/hr 20-30 mi/hr 25-35 mi/hr
Expected Snowfall (in) 0 0 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2017 (the wet season) 10.11 22.75 44
Month to Date (since May 1, 2018) 0.00 0.48 0
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2018) 4.28 7.54 57

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mount Shasta, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.