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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-02-08 05:51

  • EXPIRED ON February 9, 2018 @ 5:51 am
    Published on February 8, 2018 @ 5:51 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
  • February 8, 2018 @ 5:51 am

    Advisory Hotline: (530) 926-9613

  • Avalanche danger is LOW. Avalanches are unlikely and NORMAL CAUTION is advised. Shallow snowpack hazards exist. Beware of falling rime ice above 9500 ft.

  • Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

NORMAL CAUTION means:

  • Watch for isolated slabs.
  • Ski and ride one at a time in avalanche terrain.
  • Don't regroup in run out zones.
  • Basic avalanche rescue skills are essential in avalanche terrain.

Isolated slabs are related to wind and terrain. Look for places where small areas of drifting have occurred and firm layers of surface snow overlie softer layers. This will occur on the lee side of ridges, in terrain depressions, on convex terrain features, and in the lee of isolated bands of trees

Advisory Discussion

Falling rime ice is a concern above 9500 ft. Firm snow surfaces exist. Wear a helmet and bring an ice axe, crampons, and the knowledge to use them if traveling on steep terrain. Northerly winds will increase on the mountain over the next 24 hours.

Recent Observations

  • A temperature inversion this morning has temps in the high 40's deg F at 8,000 feet and 33 deg F in Mount Shasta City.
  • Light, easterly winds over the past 24 hours
  • Skiers reporting favorable conditions above 8,000 feet. Below, the snowpack is thin and sparse. Use caution for shallow snowpack hazards.
  • The Upper Sand Flat cross country trails hosts a usable snowpack.
  •  All other areas within the forecast area, aside from Mount Shasta itself, are not in play due to lack of snow.

 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

The high pressure ridge remains locked in place. A more northerly flow over the next 24 hours will bring windy conditions to the mountain and dry, cold air. The main effect from this will be colder night time temperatures. Daytime temps will be close to seasonal normals. Dry conditions will persist for another week. 

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured Normal Percent of Normal
From Oct 1, 2017 (the wet season) 10.11 23.97 42
Month to Date (since Feb 1, 2018) 0.00 1.70 0
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2018) 4.28 8.76 49

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 33 32 57 42.5 4 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 36 30 51 38 20 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 47 37.5 51.5 45.5 39 0 0 1
Grey Butte (8000 ft) 48.5 39 48.5 45.5 7 25 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 46.5 38 51 47 8.5 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 45.5 36 51 43.5 2 5 WSW 19.5 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 0 0 0 0 0 0 station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Sunny. Clear. Sunny, breezy
Temperatures 57 deg. F. 34 deg. F. 48 deg. F.
Wind direction NW NW NW
Wind speed 5-10 mi/hr 5-10 mi/hr 10-15 mi/hr
Expected snowfall 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Sunny, increasing winds Clear, windy. Sunny and windy
Temperatures 34 deg. F. 31 deg. F. 32 deg. F.
Wind direction NW NW NW
Wind speed 10-20 mi/hr 20-30 mi/hr 30-40 mi/hr
Expected snowfall 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mount Shasta, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.