You are here

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-12-22 07:11:40

  • EXPIRED ON December 23, 2013 @ 7:11 am
    Published on December 22, 2013 @ 7:11 am
  • Issued by -

Season's Greetings and Happy Holidays!
The Mt Shasta Avalanche Center is fervently waiting for snow and engaged in planning for a great season.
Upper elevations of Mt Shasta received a light dusting of snow over the weekend. The avalanche danger for those wishing to ski on the glaciers is LOW. Open bergshrunds, weak snow bridges and ice patches will be encountered on all of the glaciers along with a trace of new snow.
yesStay tuned for always the latest. Check our 'Events' link for the latest happenings!  yes

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

No current avalanche forecast is available

No current avalanche forecast is available

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

The upper elevations of Mt. Shasta received a trace of snow over the weekend. The avalanche danger on Mt Shasta's glaciers is LOW. Skiing on the glaciers at this time is rough and icy. Any skiing on the north or east side glaciers would be not for the faint of heart! Be cautious of open bergshrunds, crevasses, ice patches, and rock/ice fall. Self arrest may be difficult with current conditions.


 

Recent Observations

Mt Shasta's upper elevations received a very light application of snow over the weekend. No need to perk as I'll emphasize 'very light'... new snow totals in wind loaded areas is probably no more that 1 inch.

Dwindling, patchy and downright desperate snow conditions up to 7 inches deep can be found above 6,500 feet in shaded areas and on northerly slopes. Areas on other aspects are devoid of snow. Aspects that host the most snow (cold, north facing) consist of sugary, faceted snow with various near surface crusts. When winter decideds to start, we will be watching these lower faceted/crust layers as they could be probelmatic with a bunch of new snow on top. I've seen the best developed facets and most snow over in the Ash Creek Butte area. This geographic cone is popular for snowmobilers and riders will need to be heads up when riding commences in Ash Creek's bowls.

Warm temperatures accompanied by wind have melted what meager snow we've had over the last week. Beyond the gate at Bunny Flat and the Sand Flat Winter Trails, snow is just about gone right now and skiing is not possible until we get more snow. Quite the sad state of affairs! Maybe, just maybe, over on the east side of Ash Creek Butte or of course, Mt Shasta's glaciers,  one could strap skis on and giv'er a go...but thats about it.


A current look at our situation on the South side of Mt. Shasta, photo taken 12-18-13, just before our recent dusting of snow at higher elevations. (Photo: H Meyers)

The North Side of Mt. Shasta with the Hotlam Glacier in center, Hotlam/Wintun ridge left, Shastina to the far right. Taken 12-18-13. (Photo: H Meyers)


The East side of Mt. Shasta, taken 12-18-13 (Photo: H Meyers)

Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

SnowpackIf snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.

 


 

    Weather and Current Conditions

    Weather Summary

    In Mt Shasta City this morning at 0500, we have clear skies with a current temperature of 41F.

    On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

    Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, we have no new snow, with a snow depth total of appoximately 5-6 inches in shaded and/or northerly facing aspects. The current temperature is 31F with a low of 30F and a high of 45F.

    Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 32F. Temps have ranged from a low of 30F to a high 40F. Winds continued through yesterday morning, averaging 30-40mph from the North until about 1000. Wind direction then switched to Southeast and calmed considerably through this morning, averaging 8-10mph and Southerly, gusting to 28mph at 2100, Southwest.

    Castle Lake and Mt Eddy (West side of I-5)... 

    Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 34F with a low of 33F and a high of 37F. Castle Lake had no new snow overnight with a current snowpack of about 5 inches in more shaded areas and/or northerly aspects.

    Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 35F with a low of 30F and a high of 37F. Winds have been averaging 4 mph with gusts to 29 mph, Southeast.

    THIS SEASON:  Since September 1st, we have received 2.82 inches of water, normal is 13.27 inches, putting us at 21% of normal. For the month of December, Mt Shasta has received .24 inches of water with normal being 5.24 inches, which is 4% of normal. For the year, Mt Shasta has received 10.00 inches of water, normal is 40.60 inches, putting us at 24% of normal for 2013.

    "Drought" and "driest" are words being spoken by weather professionals these days. It appears that we will decidedly break the record for driest calendar year on record. The 1981 to 2010 normal for water in Mt. Shasta is 43.21". Last December 2012, alone, was wetter than this entire 2013 calendar year has been (10.43")!

    WEATHER SYNOPSIS:

    High pressure offshore, northerly flow...sound familiar? A few minor fronts may swagger into the area over Christmas week, the first on Monday/Tuesday. Most precip will be limited to areas West of I-5. Next weekend, a system may arrive with nothing notable, maybe a few showers. And, some more good news for folks that don't like snow, from our friend Brett at the NWS Medford: "There still appears to be no breakdown in the blocking high over the Eastern Pacific through the end of the month and even through the first week of January."       frown

    Let's keep are heads up and make the most of it. Every day our feet hit the floor, is a gift.

    CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
    0600 temperature: 31
    Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 45
    Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: North/Northwest moving to South/Southwest
    Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 10 mi/hr
    Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 71 mi/hr
    New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
    Total snow depth: 0-6 inches

    Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

    Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

    For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
      Sunday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Sunday Night
    (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
    Monday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Weather Mostly sunny Partly cloudy Partly Sunny, warmer
    Temperature (°F) 45 32 47
    Wind (mi/hr) North 10-20mph North becoming Northeast 5-10mph Variable 0-5mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
    For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
      Sunday Sunday Night Monday
    Weather Mostly sunny Partly cloudy, blustery Partly sunny
    Temperature (°F) 41 29 41
    Wind (mi/hr) North Exposed areas, 20-30mph, decreasing through day, gusts to 40-50mph Northwest 0 Northwest/West 15-25mph, gusts to 30mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

    Disclaimer

    This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.