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Avalanche Advisory for 2014-01-10 06:41:34

  • EXPIRED ON January 11, 2014 @ 6:41 am
    Published on January 10, 2014 @ 6:41 am
  • Issued by -

Snow and high winds are expected early Saturday into early Sunday morning. The avalanche danger on the glaciers is currently LOW. All other lower to mid elevation areas will take more snow than this storm has to offer to issue an avalanche danger rating.
Rockfall is still a hazard on Mt. Shasta until we receive more snow. Climbing is not recommended on select routes. Be sure to check the climbing advisory if you still choose to climb.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

No current avalanche forecast is available

No current avalanche forecast is available

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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The avalanche danger on Mt Shasta's glaciers is LOW. High winds and snow will contribute to wind loading as the weekend progresses. The avalanche danger will increase Saturday and Sunday on steeper sections (greater than 30 degrees) of the glaciers.

Skiing on the glaciers at this time is rough and icy. Any skiing on the north or east side glaciers would be not for the faint of heart! Be cautious of open bergshrunds, crevasses, ice patches, and rock/ice fall. Self arrest may be difficult with current conditions. Always keep an eye and ear above for rock fall.


 

Recent Observations

A trace of new snow fell early in the week near and above treeline on the mountain. This provided nothing more that aesthetic value and nothing in the way of a snowpack. However, our first real storm of the winter season is upon us and hopes are high that we'll get 6 or 8 inches out of this one.

On New Years Day, we had a rockfall accident on the south side of Mt Shasta on the Avalanche Gulch (AG) route. Three climbers were attempting to climb the AG route on January 1st and were right of 'The Heart' at approximately 11,700 feet when a shower of rocks struck the climbers and knocked them off their feet. Each fell several hundred feet over rock and ice. One female suffered critical head and leg injuries though she should make a full recovery. A male climber suffered a head injury also and a broken elbow. The third climber got lucky and had cuts/contusions and abraisions only. Both the critical female and male climbers were hoisted off the mountain with cooperation between Siskiyou County SAR, California Highway Patrol helicopter H-16 and a USFS Climbing Ranger. The climbers had little to no experience and did not have ice axes or crampons. They did say they were wearing helmets but "they flew off" during their falls and never located. This accident is exactly why we do not recommend climbing this route when conditions are as such.

California Highway Patrol helicopter H-16 awaits Ranger N. Meyers and last member of the climbing party as they descend the Avalanche Gulch route on New Years Day. [Photo: John Scala]


The first hoist of the critical female climber; Meyers and two other climbers below. Jan 1st, 2014. [Photo: J. Scala]


Pilot Steve Weyand at the helm. [Photo: K. Alexander]

Mt Shasta has received no new snow over the past week (surprise, surprise!) and conditions continue to be the same: partly cloudy to mostly sunny and mild. Recreation has been in the form of ice skating, mountain biking, hiking, ice fishing and anthing else not on snow. Most upper elevation lakes are frozen and pretty good for ice skating, but always use caution as conditions change daily.

Downright desperate snow conditions only a couple inches deep at best can be found above 6,500 feet on shaded, northerly slopes. Other aspects are devoid of snow. Northerly/shaded slopes holding the most snow consist of sugary, faceted snow with various near surface crusts. That being said, much of these crust layers and snow in general has melted in recent weeks and we are basically starting over with our snowpack. We have such little snow on the ground now that it will likely not affect the future avalanche danger until we get measurable snow.

Beyond the gate at Bunny Flat and the Sand Flat Winter Trails, snow is gone right now and skiing is not possible until we get more snow. For the most hard up skiers, Shasta's glaciers are the only skiing to be had in the area.


Aerial photo of the South side of Mt. Shasta, taken 12-18-13. (Photo: H Meyers)

The North Side of Mt. Shasta with the Hotlam Glacier in center, Hotlam/Wintun ridge left, Shastina to the far right. Taken 12-18-13. (Photo: H Meyers)


The East side of Mt. Shasta, taken 12-18-13 (Photo: H Meyers)

Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

SnowpackIf snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.

 


 

    Weather and Current Conditions

    Weather Summary

    In Mt Shasta City this morning at 0500, we have clear skies, with a current temperature of 30F degrees.

    On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

    Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, we have a trace of new snow (.02" water), with a snow depth total of up to 2 inches. The current temperature is 39F with a low of 25F and a high of 39F.

    Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 38F. Temps have ranged from a low of 24F to a high 38F. Winds have been howling with an average wind speed of 40-50 mph and a max gust of 106mph at 0400 this morning, all out of the Northwest.

    Castle Lake and Mt Eddy (West side of I-5)... 

    Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 33F with a low of 28F and a high of 37F. Castle Lake has no new snow with a current snowpack of 0-2 inches in more shaded areas and/or northerly aspects.

    Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 30F with a low of 25F and a high of 36F. Winds have averaged 3-6 mph with gusts to 22 mph and east/southeast in nature. Snow depth total is 0-2 inches.

    THIS SEASON: We'll reset the numbers and see where we stand this year, 2014. While it's quite early still, thus far, since September 1st (the wet season), we have received 2.83 inches of water, normal is 18.02 inches, putting us at 15% of normal. For the month of January, Mt Shasta has received 0.01 inches of water with normal being 2.14 inches. For the year 2014, Mt Shasta has received 0.01 inches of water, normal is 2.14 inches.

    Mt Shasta finished off 2013 with exactly 10.00 inches of water, normal is 43.21", putting us at a meager 23% of normal. Let it be known that a DESERT is classified as an area that receives 10 inches of water or less per year. Welcome to the Mt. Shasta area desert biome.  smiley

    December 2012 was wetter than the entire 2013 calendar year (10.43"). WOW!

    WEATHER SYNOPSIS:

    After a long wait, the much anticipated first real storm of the season is upon us.  Snow showers and rain will arrive later today with the brunt of the storm Saturday and into early Sunday. Westerly flow prevails, so we won't get as much snow/precip as the westside, however winds will be cranking. Above treeline winds look to average 50mph with gust much higher expected. Precipitation totals show .30" to .5" inches of water, which could mean up to 6-8 inches of snow at best I'm guessing. Snow levels will start high, near 6,500 feet and lower to 4-5,000 feet by Saturday afternoon. High pressure is expected again for next week.

     

     

     

     

    CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
    0600 temperature: 39
    Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 39
    Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: Northwest
    Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 40-60 mi/hr
    Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 106 mi/hr
    New snowfall in the last 24 hours: trace inches
    Total snow depth: 0-2 inches

    Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

    Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

    For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
      Friday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Friday Night
    (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
    Saturday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Weather Mostly clear this morning, rain and snow showers in afternoon. Increasing clouds, rain/snow Cloudy, snow
    Temperature (°F) 43 36 34
    Wind (mi/hr) West/Southwest 20-30mph South 20-30mph with gusts higher West 20-30mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0-2 / 1-2 / 3-5
    For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
      Friday Friday Night Saturday
    Weather Mostly clear this morning, snow showers later today and tonight Increasing clouds, snow Cloudy, snow
    Temperature (°F) 39 32 28
    Wind (mi/hr) West 50-60mph with gusts higher West/Southwest 0-2 West 50-70mph average with gusts to over 100mph.
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0-2 / 1-2 / 3-7

    Disclaimer

    This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.