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Avalanche Advisory for 2014-01-11 06:37:09

  • EXPIRED ON January 12, 2014 @ 6:37 am
    Published on January 11, 2014 @ 6:37 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

The avalanche danger on the glaciers is LOW. Pockets of MODERATE danger could be found on NE, E, SE glacial slopes steeper than 35 degrees as the day progresses.
Strong westerly winds and 3-7 inches of snow is expected above 5,000 feet.
All other lower to mid elevation areas will take more snow to issue an avalanche danger rating.
Rockfall is still a hazard on Mt. Shasta until we receive more snow. Climbing is not recommended on select routes. Be sure to check the climbing advisory if you still choose to climb.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

No current avalanche forecast is available

No current avalanche forecast is available

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slab

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The avalanche danger on Mt Shasta's glaciers is LOW. High winds and new snow will contribute to wind loading today. Snow total amounts will be 3-7 inches with winds westerly in nature. Pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger could be found on NE, E and SE slopes steeper than 35 degrees as the day progresses.

Skiing on the glaciers at this time is rough and icy. Any skiing on the north or east side glaciers would be not for the faint of heart! Be cautious of open bergshrunds, crevasses, ice patches, and rock/ice fall. Self arrest may be difficult with current conditions. Always keep an eye and ear above for rock fall.


 

Recent Observations

The weekend storm is upon us. Precipitation is just beginning to fall this morning and the heaviest precip will be during the first half of the day. Strong westerly winds will be encountered above treeline. Things should taper off this afternoon and showery weather will take us into Sunday. Clearing is expected to follow. As soon as we get some recent snow observations, we'll be sure to put them on here! :)

All trailheads are still accessible by vehicle. Now that maybe, just maybe winter is beginning, be cautious of any overnight trips on the mountain with snow involved. Storms can easily dump large amounts of snow to the area and make it difficult to drive off the mountain! While Northgate, Brewer Ck and Clear Ck trailheads are officially closed, the bathrooms are still open with packout bags inside, and one can still access the Mt Shasta Wilderness. However, your summit pass and wilderness permits must be purchased at McCloud or Mt Shasta Ranger Stations.

Beyond the gate at Bunny Flat and the Sand Flat Winter Trails, snow is gone right now and skiing is not possible until we get more snow. For the most hard up skiers, Shasta's glaciers are the only skiing to be had in the area.

On New Years Day, we had a rockfall accident on the south side of Mt Shasta on the Avalanche Gulch (AG) route. Three climbers were attempting to climb the AG route on January 1st and were right of 'The Heart' at approximately 11,700 feet when a shower of rocks struck the climbers and knocked them off their feet. Each fell several hundred feet over rock and ice. One female suffered critical head and leg injuries though she should make a full recovery. A male climber suffered a head injury also and a broken elbow. The third climber got lucky and had cuts/contusions and abraisions only. Both the critical female and male climbers were hoisted off the mountain with cooperation between Siskiyou County SAR, California Highway Patrol helicopter H-16 and a USFS Climbing Ranger. The climbers had little to no experience and did not have ice axes or crampons. They did say they were wearing helmets but "they flew off" during their falls and never located. This accident is exactly why we do not recommend climbing this route when conditions are as such.

California Highway Patrol helicopter H-16 awaits Ranger N. Meyers and last member of the climbing party as they descend the Avalanche Gulch route on New Years Day. [Photo: John Scala]


The first hoist of the critical female climber; Meyers and two other climbers below. Jan 1st, 2014. [Photo: J. Scala]


Pilot Steve Weyand at the helm. [Photo: K. Alexander]

Below are a few aerial pictures taken during the middle of December. Up until today (1-11-14), conditions look much the same.


Aerial photo of the South side of Mt. Shasta, taken 12-18-13. (Photo: H Meyers)

The North Side of Mt. Shasta with the Hotlam Glacier in center, Hotlam/Wintun ridge left, Shastina to the far right. Taken 12-18-13. (Photo: H Meyers)


The East side of Mt. Shasta, taken 12-18-13 (Photo: H Meyers)

Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

SnowpackIf snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.

 


 

    Weather and Current Conditions

    Weather Summary

    In Mt Shasta City this morning at 0500, we have cloudy skies, light precip and a current temperature of 42F degrees.

    On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

    Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, we have no new snow with a snow depth total of up to 5 inches in more shaded areas. The current temperature is 28F with a low of 28F and a high of 39F.

    Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 27F. Temps have ranged from a low of 27F to a high 38F. Winds have calmed down a bit since yesterday. We saw our highest average and max wind speed from the northwest, averaging 30-50mph with a max gust of 92mph in the last 24 hours. (We did see a 106mph gust earlier in the day yesterday!) Winds died a bit beginning at 1500 and moved to more westerly in direction, averaging 20-30mph with a max gust of 35mph.

    Castle Lake and Mt Eddy (West side of I-5)... 

    Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 32F with a low of 32F and a high of 45F. Castle Lake has no new snow with a current snowpack of 0-2 inches in more shaded areas and/or northerly aspects.

    Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 33F with a low of 32F and a high of 44F. Winds have averaged 2 mph with gusts to 16 mph and southeast in nature. Snow depth total is 0-2 inches.

    THIS SEASON: We'll reset the numbers and see where we stand this year, 2014. Since September 1st (the wet season), we have received 2.83 inches of water, normal is 18.27 inches, putting us at 15% of normal. For the month of January, Mt Shasta has received 0.01 inches of water with normal being 2.39 inches. For the year 2014, Mt Shasta has received 0.01 inches of water, normal is 2.39 inches.

    Mt Shasta finished off 2013 with exactly 10.00 inches of water, normal is 43.21", putting us at a meager 23% of normal. Let it be known that a DESERT is classified as an area that receives 10 inches of water or less per year. Welcome to the Mt. Shasta area desert biome.  smiley

    December 2012 was wetter than the entire 2013 calendar year (10.43"). WOW!

    WEATHER SYNOPSIS:

    Mt Shasta sits at the southern end of this storm and while the precipitation is more than welcomed, we probably won't see the huge whopper we all desire. This seems to be a trend in recent years... areas north of our location, such as Crater Lake, end up getting the "eye" of the storm. Those dogs...

    This storm will bring it's heaviest precip this morning up until noon and begin to taper into the afternoon/evening. Precip totals are near .40" of water. Temps are a bit warm for snow down to town...snow levels are showing 6-7,000 feet this morning and lowering to 4-5,000 feet by this evening. All this said, we could see a handful of inches of snow on the mountain, but probably nothing to warrant any winter sports as of yet.

    Winds above treeline will still crank today, westerly in nature, with speeds averaging 40-50mph with gusts higher. Below treeline, expect gusty winds with lower speeds, 10-20mph.

    I heard an amazing rumor that a "pineapple express" is gearing up, a week to two weeks out. Let's forget about that for now.

     

     

    CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
    0600 temperature: 28
    Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 39
    Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: West/Northwest
    Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 35-45 mi/hr
    Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 85 mi/hr
    New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
    Total snow depth: 0-5 inches

    Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

    Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

    For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
      Saturday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Saturday Night
    (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
    Sunday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Weather Snow showers Snow showers, mostly before 10am Slight chance of snow in the morning, clearing
    Temperature (°F) 34 22 34
    Wind (mi/hr) Southwest 10-20mph with gusts to 30mph West/Northwest 10-20mph with gusts North/Northwest 10-20mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 3-5 / 1-3 / 0-.5
    For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
      Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
    Weather Snow showers Snow showers, mainly before 10am Slight chance of snow showers in the morning, clearing
    Temperature (°F) 30 17 27
    Wind (mi/hr) West 50-60mph with gusts higher West/Northwest 3-7 Northwest 50-60mph with gusts higher
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 3-7 / 1-3 / 0-.5

    Disclaimer

    This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.