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Avalanche Advisory for 2014-01-12 07:14:16

  • EXPIRED ON January 13, 2014 @ 7:14 am
    Published on January 12, 2014 @ 7:14 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Three inches of new snow fell in the last 24 hours with northwest winds averaging 20mph. On Mt Shasta's glaciers, the avalanche danger is LOW. Areas of drifted snow will be found and normal caution is advised if climbing or skiing on the glaciers. For all other areas, the avalanche danger is non-existent due to lack of snow cover.
Rockfall is still a hazard on Mt. Shasta until we receive significant snow. Climbing is not recommended on select routes. Be sure to check the climbing advisory if you still choose to climb.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

No current avalanche forecast is available

No current avalanche forecast is available

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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The avalanche danger on Mt Shasta's glaciers is LOW. Moderate winds and 3 inches of new snow fell yesterday above 6,000 feet. Small, isolated pockets of wind loading will be found on the glaciers. Normal caution advised. Skiing on the glaciers at this time is rough and icy. Be cautious of open bergshrunds, crevasses, ice patches, and rock/ice fall. Self arrest may be difficult with current conditions. Always keep an eye and ear out for rock fall.


 

Recent Observations

Approximately three inches of new snow fell yesterday (.14" water) between 0800 and 1200. A perfect little tease by Mother Nature. That gal, I tell ya...  This latest storm came with westerly flow which is never very favorable for Mt Shasta or the eastside in general. Check the rainfall maps of Northern California below. Winds have been northwest and a steady 15-20mph on the south side of Shasta. Gusts have reached the upper 20's on average with a max of 56mph early this morning.
More snow is still needed to warrant solid snow observations. Any skiing is limited to the glaciers currently.

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All trailheads are still accessible by vehicle. Be cautious of any overnight trips on the mountain with snow involved. Storms can easily dump large amounts of snow to the area and make it difficult to drive off the mountain! While Northgate, Brewer Ck and Clear Ck trailheads are officially closed, the bathrooms are still open with packout bags inside, and one can still access the Mt Shasta Wilderness. However, your summit pass and wilderness permits must be purchased at McCloud or Mt Shasta Ranger Stations. NO DOGS are allowed in the Mt Shasta Wilderness OR Sierra Club Property. Thanks!

Beyond the gate at Bunny Flat and the Sand Flat Winter Trails, we have 3 inches of new snow on a hard road surface! A few cross-country skiers went out yesterday. With the sunny and clear weather expected, most of this snow will likely melt of quickly.

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On New Years Day, we had a rockfall accident on the south side of Mt Shasta on the Avalanche Gulch (AG) route. Three climbers were attempting to climb the AG route on January 1st and were right of 'The Heart' at approximately 11,700 feet when a shower of rocks struck the climbers and knocked them off their feet. Each fell several hundred feet over rock and ice. One female suffered critical head and leg injuries though she should make a full recovery. A male climber suffered a head injury also and a broken elbow. The third climber got lucky and had cuts/contusions and abraisions only. Both the critical female and male climbers were hoisted off the mountain with cooperation between Siskiyou County SAR, California Highway Patrol helicopter H-16 and a USFS Climbing Ranger. The climbers had little to no experience and did not have ice axes or crampons. They did say they were wearing helmets but "they flew off" during their falls and never located. This accident is exactly why we do not recommend climbing this route when conditions are as such.

California Highway Patrol helicopter H-16 awaits Ranger N. Meyers and last member of the climbing party as they descend the Avalanche Gulch route on New Years Day. [Photo: John Scala]


The first hoist of the critical female climber; Meyers and two other climbers below. Jan 1st, 2014. [Photo: J. Scala]


Pilot Steve Weyand at the helm. [Photo: K. Alexander]

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Below are a few aerial pictures taken during the middle of December.


Aerial photo of the South side of Mt. Shasta, taken 12-18-13. (Photo: H Meyers)

The North Side of Mt. Shasta with the Hotlam Glacier in center, Hotlam/Wintun ridge left, Shastina to the far right. Taken 12-18-13. (Photo: H Meyers)


The East side of Mt. Shasta, taken 12-18-13 (Photo: H Meyers)

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Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

SnowpackIf snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.

 


 

    Weather and Current Conditions

    Weather Summary

    In Mt Shasta City this morning at 0500, we have stars showing and clear skies, and a current temperature of 28F degrees, 14F degrees cooler than yesterday morning at this time.

    On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

    Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, we have 3 inches of new snow (.14" water) with a snow depth total of up to 5-8 inches in more shaded areas. The current temperature is 25F with a low of 18F and a high of 28F.

    Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 17F. Temps have ranged from a low of 16F to a high 25F. Winds have steadily averaged 15-20mph with gusts frequently in the upper 20's, northwest in nature. One gust early this morning at 0400 reached 56mph out of the NNW.

    Castle Lake and Mt Eddy (West side of I-5)... 

    Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 22F with a low of 21F and a high of 33F. Castle Lake has 2 inches of new snow with a current snowpack of 0-3 inches in more shaded areas and/or northerly aspects.

    Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 21F with a low of 19F and a high of 31F. Mt Eddy received 2-3 inches of new snow and the snow depth total is 0-3 inches. Winds have averaged 2-3 mph with gusts to 16 mph and easterly in nature.

    THIS SEASON: We'll reset the numbers and see where we stand this year, 2014. Since September 1st (the wet season), we have received 2.97 inches of water, normal is 18.52 inches, putting us at 16% of normal. For the month of January, Mt Shasta has received 0.15 inches of water with normal being 2.64 inches. For the year 2014, Mt Shasta has received 0.15 inches of water, normal is 2.64 inches, which puts us at 5% of normal.

    Mt Shasta finished off 2013 with exactly 10.00 inches of water, normal is 43.21", putting us at a meager 23% of normal. Let it be known that a DESERT is classified as an area that receives 10 inches of water or less per year. Welcome to the Mt. Shasta area desert biome.  smiley

    December 2012 was wetter than the entire 2013 calendar year (10.43"). WOW!

    WEATHER SYNOPSIS:

    Short term and long term, it doesn't look good. I'm sorry. Find the person closest to you, grab their hand, look them deep in the eyes and say, "It's going to be okay...". Thats about all the advice I can offer at this point for all that are drooling for winter, myself included!

    Our familiar pattern of a high pressure ridge off the coasts builds this week and will give us mostly clear and warmer weather for the near future. Climate predication indicates below normal precip and above normal temps for the next few weeks. Persistent drought continues in the Western United States for all but the northern states. All that said, a forecaster from the NWS mentioned that 10-14 days out we could begin to see a break down of the high pressure and an influx of stormy weather. We desperately need the Shasta snowmaker, south flow!

     

    CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
    0600 temperature: 25
    Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 28
    Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: Northwest
    Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 20 mi/hr
    Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 56 mi/hr
    New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 3" inches
    Total snow depth: 0-5 inches

    Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

    Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

    For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
      Sunday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Sunday Night
    (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
    Monday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Weather A small chance of scattered snow showers this morning, otherwise clearing, partly sunny. Partly cloudy, clearing Sunny
    Temperature (°F) 33 27 46
    Wind (mi/hr) West/Northwest 5-10mph Variable 5-15mph North 10-15mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0-.5 / 0 / 0
    For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
      Sunday Sunday Night Monday
    Weather Small chance of scattered snow showers, otherwise clearing, party sunny Partly cloudy, clearing Sunny
    Temperature (°F) 26 22 41
    Wind (mi/hr) North/Northwest 15-25 with gusts to 40mph North 0-.5 North/Northwest 15-25mph with gusts to 40mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0-.5 / 0 / 0

    Disclaimer

    This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.