Avalanche Advisory for 2015-02-06 07:04:59

Our month long, almost completely dry spell (only .48 inches of water fell in Mt Shasta over the month of January) has come to a screeching hault! A very impressive storm is happening now and is expected to deliver a healthy amount of water, snow and wind to the area. We received about 1.25 inches of water early in the week on February 2nd with high snow levels. The Old Ski Bowl weather station recorded very little new snow, however reports from the upper mountain observed up to 12 inches of new snow in areas after that short storm.

Overall, we have a smooth, firm bed surface that all this new snow is falling on. We will see fluctuating snow levels this weekend between 6,000 to 8,000 feet. This storm is arriving warmer, will cool a bit Saturday and then warm back up a bit on Sunday. Layering of the new storm snow could alternate between light and heavy snow.  This is going to contribute to instability, especialy if we get heavier, dense snow on top of lighter density snow. Either way, we will see the avalanche danger crescendo as we move through the weekend. Observations over the week gave us a strong snowpack and no recent instabilities or weak layers observed.
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The Mt Shasta Avalanche Center has issued an AVALANCHE WATCH for the forecast area, in effect Friday 8am PDT through Saturday 8pm PDT.

The Mt Shasta area is forecasted to receive between 6 to 10 inches of water by Monday evening, which could mean 6-8 feet of snow near and above treeline on Mt Shasta. Snow levels will fluctuate between 6,000 and 8,000 feet. Extremely strong, south/southwest winds will accompany this storm which will predominantly load north and east slopes with deep snow. Concerns for small to increasingly large wind and storm slab avalanches exists for all aspects, near and above treeline on Mt Shasta this weekend. 

Avalanches from the upper mountain may become large enough to impact lower elevation avalanche runout zones. Avoid travel in low angle runout zones below treeline.

Those traveling on Mt Shasta this weekend should have extensive avalanche knowledge and use careful route selection. Always travel with a partner and carry an avalanche beacon, shovel and probe... and know how to use them.
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The AVALANCHE WATCH will be re-evaluated at close of business on Saturday and potentially extended or upgraded to warning criteria.

Report your observations to the MSAC! A photo, a few words... send them in! (nimeyers@fs.fed.us or 530-926-9614)

Castle Lake area has a shallow snowpack. Be careful of shallow buried objects. Skiing has been reported as poor to non-existent.

Sand Flat Winter Trails: OPEN, trail conditions are firm and getting thin with some tree debris on snow surface. 

Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park: OPEN, however due to lack of low elevation snow, one must drive up the road several miles before enough snow is encountered. One CANNOT DRIVE over Military Pass.

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Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

Snowpack:  If snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.

The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include:  1) Recent/current avalanche activity  2) Whumpfing sounds or shooting cracks  3) Recent/current heavy snowfall  4) Strong winds transporting snow  5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.