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Avalanche Advisory for 2016-02-07 06:41:08

  • EXPIRED ON February 8, 2016 @ 6:41 am
    Published on February 7, 2016 @ 6:41 am
  • Issued by Jon Dove - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Overall, LOW avalanche danger exists at all elevations, all aspects. Pockets of MODERATE danger may exist for isolated wind slabs on protected terrain features around rock outcroppings, near ridge tops and most susceptible to trigger on slopes 37 degrees and steeper. Human trigger of a wind slab may be possible.  Loose wet snow instabilities will become an increasing risk on sun exposed aspects. 
Normal caution is advised. 

 

 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab

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Remaining wind slabs of small to possibly medium in size will be found on leeward S-SE-E-NE-N-NW aspects above treeline.  If just the right trigger point is stumbled upon, the resulting slide could entrain enough snow to easily bury a person.  Slopes 37 degrees and steeper, in complex terrain, steep chutes, convexities/roll overs, protected areas around rock outcroppings, just below ridge tops and cross loaded depressions will be the best places to encounter said wind slabs. Wind slabs will be stubborn, but not impossible to trigger. Cold, northerly aspects will host the highest sensitivity to triggering. Warmer, sunny aspects, one will find better bonded wind slabs.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

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Sunshine and warming temperatures will increase the risk of loose wet snow instabilities over the next few days.  Roller balls, pin wheels, and point release snow instabilities are possible.  They will be found primarily on, but not limited to, southerly facing aspects below, near, and above treeline.  While typically not a immediate danger to life, these types of slides could easily knock a person off of their feet and push them into a terrain trap, over a cliff band, or into other undesirable terrain.  They could even entrain enough snow to bury a person.  Loose wet snow slides will become more common in the coming days. Slopes that have a long, consistent fetch can produce large loose wet avalanches on Mt Shasta. These are more common in the Spring time, but still something to think about.

Forecast Discussion

A strong, slow moving ridge of high pressure will gain strength into Monday, persisting through the majority of the week.  Temperatures will warm to above seasonal values into Tuesday, then begin a gradual cooling trend mid-week as the ridge drifts eastward.  Warm air aloft will result in temperature inversions with cold air being trapped in west side valley bottoms.  This will make air stagnation a valley fog a possible concern.  A chance for precipitation will return to the area by Thursday night as the "upstream" trough begins to eject short waves of weather toward the region. Winds over the area will be light to moderate, coming out of the northeast then shifting toward the southeast by Monday.      

 

THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 22.62 inches of water, normal is 23.73 inches, putting us at 95% of normal.  For the month of February we've received 0.13 inches of water, normal is 1.46 inches, putting us at 8% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 13.13 inches of water, normal is 8.52 inches, putting us at 154% of normal . 

 


 

Recent Observations

Yesterday an attempt was made to locate wind slab formations and test their bonding to underlying snow.  A ski tour up Green Butte Ridge toward the edge of Powder Bowl revealed that snow conditions above treeline remain quite variable.  The crown of a recent wind slab avalanche (photo below) was observed 2/4/2016 on an ESE facing aspect, in a protected pocket along the top of Green Butte Ridge that drops into Old Ski Bowl.  It is not known when the slide occurred, however, it is a perfect example of our current avalanche problem.  This recent wind slab avalanche activity is what sparked curiosity about wind slab bonding.  A snow study pit was dug at just below 9,000 ft. on the SE aspect of Powder Bowl, on a 45 degree slope, just below cornice formations lining the rim of the bowl.  A quick pit profile was taken (see below), and an extended column test performed to test the bonding of wind deposited snow.  Lighter, 4 Finger to Fist density snow that had fallen on Wednesday had been wind transported to form a layer approximately 30 cm thick.  It was observed sitting on top of much heavier, Pencil density snow that had been wind deposited about 6 days prior. A score of ECTP 12 Q2 was recorded at a depth of 34 cm at the interface of the lighter density and heavier density snow.  The snow crystals at the interface were easily identifiable as stellars and dendrites that had not decomposed creating a weak bond.  This leads me to believe that this could be the case with other wind slab formations elsewhere on the mountain.  These formations are common all along Casaval Ridge, just under the ridge top on steep SE aspects, in protected areas around rock outcroppings.  They are also common on similar aspects on Green Butte Ridge, Sun Bowl, Powder Bowl, Giddy Giddy Gulch, and Anaconda Gulch.  

A ski descent of Powder Bowl crossed many kinds of snow. Firm, icy crust, wind sculpted pillows and scales, wind buff powder being melted by the sun, and incredibly sticky snow below treeline.  Warm temperatures and lots of sunshine will continue to encourage the transition into a more consolidated snowpack, and maybe even form some corn snow conditions around 9,000 ft. and below by Wednesday.  Overall, snow instabilities have been few and far between in the forecast area with weaknesses in the snowpack relatively hard to find.

For today, evaluate snow and terrain above treeline for any signs of wind loading on leeward S-SE-E-NE-N-NW aspects.  Isolated terrain, primarily on open slopes 37 degrees and steeper, the tops of chutes and couloirs, near rock outcroppings (especially on SE aspects), depressions, and along roll overs/convexities, will be the places that one would find and potentially trigger a wind slab avalanche.  Cold, shady, northerly facing aspects likely have the highest potential for wind slab trigger. Wind slabs on all aspects affected by sun will likely become more stubborn to trigger.

Climbing conditions are good for this time of year.  Casaval, or one of the other ridge routes, would be a good option over the next few days for experienced climbers.  Avalanche Gulch climbing conditions are good with relatively firm snow for decent boot packing.  Boot penetration of just 5 cm was recorded at Helen Lake this last Thursday.  That being said, the variable snow conditions will present a variety of surfaces to travel over.  Some post holing is possible during the warmest portions of the day and at higher elevations in wind protected areas.

 

Pit profile at just under 9,000 ft. on the edge of Powder Bowl, Mt. Shasta-2/6/2016 by Forecaster:

Below: Wind effected snow conditions at upper 50/50 Flat on 2/4/2016 - 9,800 feet, Mt. Shasta

Below: Crown of wind slab avalanche, N/NE facing pocket along Green Butte Ridge on 2/4/2016

 

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LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC and SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:

The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in great shape and ready for your cross country skis or snow shoes. These are backcountry trails marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed.  Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway. Thank you, and enjoy!

The Mt Shasta Nordic Center is open! These beautiful, groomed trails can be accessed via the Ski Park Highway. http://www.mtshastanordic.org

The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open! Trails are being groomed currently. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status and other sledder resources!

The Castle Lake road is plowed to the lake. The Everett Memorial Highway is plowed to Bunny Flat.

The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include:  1) Recent/current avalanche activity  2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks  3) Recent/current heavy snowfall  4) Strong winds transporting snow  5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.

 


 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Good Morning! In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 37 F, three degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Skies are clear with calm winds.

On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 40 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 118 inches with no new snow and 1 inch of settlement.  Temperatures have ranged from 28 F to 43 F. 

Grey Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 40 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 31 F to 41 F. Winds have been averaging 15-20 mph then lowering to 5-10 mph, with a max gust to 28 mph, northwest.

Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)... 

Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 40 degrees. Temperatures have ranged from 35 F to 51 F. Snow on the ground totals 64 inches with no new snow and 1 inch of settlement.

Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 42 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 29 F to 44 F. Snow on the ground measures 82 inches with no new snow and 1-2 inches of settlement. Winds have averaged 2 mph, variable in direction with a max gust of 9 mph, southwest. 

Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
0600 temperature: 38
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 41
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: Variable
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 15-20 then 5-10 mi/hr
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 28 mi/hr
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
Total snow depth: 95 inches

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Sunday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Sunday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 55 38 59
Wind (mi/hr) East 10-15 mph Northeast 10-15 mph Northeast 10-15 mph
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather Sunny and breezy Clear Sunny and breezy
Temperature (°F) 36 36 41
Wind (mi/hr) North 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 East 0 Southeast 15-20 mph with higher gusts
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.