Avalanche Advisory for 2016-02-22 06:19:06

Yesterday an MSAC forecaster ventured out to the east side of our forecast area to make observations of the snowpack conditions.  The only evidence of snow instability were some roller balls on east to south facing slopes around mid-day when temperatures were at their warmest.  Winds increased in the afternoon coming out of the North, and high clouds began to stream over the area.  Decent powder snow was still present on more northerly, shaded aspects making for good ski/board conditions.  Snowmobilers had "high marked" and traversed on leeward, wind loaded slopes with no reaction from the snowpack.  A snow study pit was dug, and a full pit profile taken (see graph below) on a north aspect at 7,500 feet with a slope angle of 32 degrees.  An extended column stability test was performed resulting in a score of ECTX.  A compression test was also performed resulting in a score of CT23 Q2 at 30 cm deep at a change in density.  The forecasters opinion was that overall stable conditions exist.

For today, the biggest concern for any snow instabilities will be for wet loose snow avalanches, roller balls, pin wheels, and point release slough slides on E-SE-S-SW-W aspects during the warmest parts of the day.  Day time warming over the next few days will be significant with unseasonably warm temperatures. Aspects where wet loose slides are common on Mt. Shasta are the SE aspect of Casaval ridge that drops into Avalanche Gulch, SE aspects in Sun Bowl and Powder Bowl, Right Peak in the Castle Lake area.  Caution should be taken when choosing one's route of travel, especially in the afternoon hours due to loose wet instabilities.  While not much of a problem themselves, they can entrain enough snow to be a hazard to backcountry travelers.  They could knock one off of their feet, and push them over a cliff band, through tight trees, or into a terrain trap where enough snow could collect and fully bury a person.  

Full Pit Profile from the east side of the forecast area on 2-21-2016: 

Pit Profile from top of Grey Butte on 2-20-2016:

Photo of Grey Butte Pit Profile highlighting most recent snow layers:

View of Old Ski Bowl, South side of Mt. Shasta, from the top of Grey Butte:

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LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC and SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:

The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in great shape and ready for your cross country skis or snow shoes. These are backcountry trails marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed.  Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway. Thank you, and enjoy!

The Mt Shasta Nordic Center is open! These beautiful, groomed trails can be accessed via the Ski Park Highway. http://www.mtshastanordic.org

The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open! Trails are being groomed currently. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status and other sledder resources!

The Castle Lake road is plowed to the lake. The Everett Memorial Highway is plowed to Bunny Flat.

The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include:  1) Recent/current avalanche activity  2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks  3) Recent/current heavy snowfall  4) Strong winds transporting snow  5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.