You are here
Avalanche Advisory for 2016-02-28 06:42:05
- EXPIRED ON February 29, 2016 @ 6:42 amPublished on February 28, 2016 @ 6:42 am
- Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
LOW avalanche danger dominates the forecast area for all elevations and aspects.
Take normal caution and continue to practice safe travel habits.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
-
Character ?
-
Aspect/Elevation ?
-
Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Unlikely -
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLargeSmall
Normal caution is advised for today. It's always a good idea to continue to practice safe travel habits while traveling in the backcountry. One may come across wind pockets above treeline here and there, however the distribuition is very sporadic and uniform slab properties are poor. Triggering anything of size and consequence is slim to none today. Wet loose slides/roller balls will be kept at bay due to cooler temps, wind and cloud cover.
Forecast Discussion
A weak front passes through today with little to no precipitation expected. The system has shifted to the north and most precipitation will be confined to the coast and west side of Northern California and Sothern Oregon. We could see some very light rain possible at times, but otherwise partly to mostly cloudy today and windy above treeline. The next 24 hours will produce 30-40 mph winds at mid and upper mountain levels, westerly in nature. WInd chill could be in the negatives. Partly cloudy skies and a short break in the weather will ensue on Monday and then another, better looking storm for Tuesday. Tuesday's storm doesn't get me to excited, however later in the week professional weather forecaster's are calling for an "atmospheric river event" around Friday. Three of my favorite words! The bummer with this one is it's looking to be a warm one, thus high snow levels.... we are not jumping to any conclusions yet and will have to wait and see. For now, enjoy the day!
THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 25.52 inches of water, normal is 29.23 inches, putting us at 87% of normal. For the month of February we've received 3.03 inches of water, normal is 6.96 inches, putting us at 43% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 16.03 inches of water, normal is 14.02 inches, putting us at 114% of normal .
Recent Observations
Yesterday, observations in the Old Ski Bowl area found poor ski conditions with icy, hard old snow mixed in with wild looking, wind blown-packed powder sastrugi features. The recent "storm" brought very little new snow to the area with really just a dusting below and near treeline and pockets of sastrugi above treeline. It was difficult to get a shovel in the ground for a snow profile. A very strong snowpack exists in the forecast area currently and we could use a refresh! The wind loading that was observed in the Old Ski Bowl was very sporadic and not uniform and triggering any wind pocket of consequence would be difficult. Uniform slab properties in wind loaded areas were poor as seen in the photo below. Avalanche Gulch skiers reported better conditions in the gullies where perhaps some new snow loaded in. There have been no reports/observations of recent avalanche activity.
Sastrugi feature in the Old Ski Bowl with Green Butte in the background, photo taken on 2.27.16
Aerial photo of Mt Shasta taken late February, 2016 by Jimmy WIlliams with his son Billy as pilot. Thanks for sharing you guys!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC, AND SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:
The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in good shape and ready for your cross country skis and snow shoes. These are backcountry routes marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed. Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway. Thank you, and enjoy!
The Mt. Shasta Nordic Center is open! These beautiful, groomed trails can be accessed via the Ski Park Highway. http://www.mtshastanordic.org
The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open! Trails have not been groomed in the past week and a half due to warm temperatures. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status, and other sledder resources.
The Castle Lake Road is plowed to the lake. The Everett Memorial Highway is plowed to Bunny Flat.
The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
Good Morning! In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 32 F, one degree cooler than yesterday at this time, with mostly clear skies and calm wind.
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 33 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 117 inches with no new snow and one inch settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 23 F to 38 F.
Grey Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 29 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 21 F to 32 F. Winds have averaged 10 mph and westerly in nature with a max gust to 49 mph north/northwest.
Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 34 degrees. Temperatures have ranged from 28 F to 47 F. Snow on the ground totals 65 inches with no new snow and 1 inch of settlement.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 30 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 24 F to 41 F. Snow on the ground measures 77 inches with no new snow and little settlement. Winds have averaged 2-3 mph, southerly in direction with a max gust of 9 mph, south/southeast.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
| 0600 temperature: | 32 |
| Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 39 |
| Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | Westerly |
| Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 5-10 mi/hr |
| Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 49 (Grey Butte) mi/hr |
| New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
| Total snow depth: | 84 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Sunday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Sunday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Monday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | A slight chance of rain and snow showers after 10am. Mostly cloudy | Partly cloudy | A 10 percent chance of rain after 4pm. Mostly sunny |
| Temperature (°F) | 44 | 28 | 45 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Southwest shifting to west 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph | East/Northeast 5-10 mph | East shifting to southeast in afternoon 5-10 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Sunday | Sunday Night | Monday | |
| Weather | A slight chance of snow before 10am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Windy | Partly cloudy.Windy, wind chill values as low as -2. | Mostly sunny, Windy |
| Temperature (°F) | 26 | 21 | 27 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | West 20-30 mph | West 0 | West 20-30 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
