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Forecast Addendum - 01/07/2022 - 07:00am

Submitted by nmeyers on Fri, 01/07/2022 - 5:44am
Recent Observations: 

Yesterday, we took a wide-ranging snowmobile tour from town to 10,000 feet, the first good day of visibility all week. Temps were a bit cooler than the day prior. Clear skies in the mountains allowed for a full, above treeline look-see. Clouds and low fog filled the valleys. The recent warming event this past week with fog, light rain, and mist really did a number on the snowpack. It's quite variable out there with some soft, smooth turns possible in select areas, but also a lot of icy surfaces, breakable crusts, undulating sastrugi features and scoured ridges. It's the full smorgasbord, and not a very tasty one. Westerly winds were notable over exposed terrain above treeline. Gray Butte weather station has averaged 15 mi/hr wind speeds out of the west over the past 24 hours, with gusts to 37 mi/hr.

A couple old wind slab avalanches were observed off the east face of Gray Butte. These natural slides looked like they were triggered by a cornice failure above. The terrain is above treeline, steep, part of it a hanging snow field, and gets wind loaded during W-NW wind events.

Some small rock chunks were observed on lower angle terrain below Sargents Ridge.

All southerly facing, RIME plastered rocks will eventually shed their frosty coat, lobbing small to large chunks of ice (pretty much like a rock) down onto climbers below. This hazard should not be underestimated. Wear a helmet. Further, smooth and icy slopes present slide for life conditions on steeper slopes. Carry an ice axe and crampons. Know how to use them. Self-arrest is mandatory if one slips and falls.

Lower down on the mountain, melt runnels dominate the snowpack. Soft, mushy snow and crusts were observed. 

A skier in Giddy Giddy Gulch reported decent, soft and smooth turns in the gully above treeline and breakable crusts near and below treeline.

No signs of recent avalanche danger was observed.

 

Mountain Weather: 

A weak front is making its way onshore this morning, offering up snow showers and westerly wind. This spurt of winter-like weather will wane throughout the day. Snow levels are expected to hover near 4,900 feet and a few inches of snow is possible. It will be windy above treeline, so hang on to your hat if venturing upwards on the mountain. After everything moves through, high pressure will begin to build over the forecast area. Fog in the valleys is likely, with sunshine in the mountains. Monday, a frontal system approaches the West Coast, but this one isn't anything to write home about. More on that one later. 

Today 7-8 Weather : 
Snow, patchy blowing snow, breezy. Snow level near 4,900 feet.
Today 7-8 Wind Direction: 
SW
Today 8-9 Weather: 
Snow, widespread blowing snow, windy.
Today 8-9 Wind Direction: 
W
Tomorrow 7-8 Weather: 
Sunny
Tomorrow 7-8 Wind Direction: 
N
Tomorrow 8-9 Weather: 
Sunny, windy
Tomorrow 8-9 Wind Direction: 
NW
Tonight 7-8 Weather: 
Partly cloudy, 40% chance of snow showers. Snow level near 3,600 feet
Tonight 7-8 Wind Direction: 
W
Tonight 8-9 Weather: 
Chance of snow, little accumulation, windy.
Tonight 8-9 Wind Direction: 
W
Today 7-8 Temp: 
28
Today 8-9 Temp: 
16
Tomorrow 7-8 Temp: 
30
Tomorrow 8-9 Temp: 
27
Tonight 7-8 Temp: 
18
Tonight 8-9 Temp: 
14
24
24
34.5
29.5
76.62
0
0.08
Grey Butte Temp Cur: 
23.5
Grey Butte Temp Min: 
23.5
Grey Butte Temp Max: 
31.5
Grey Butte Temp Avg: 
28
Grey Butte Wind Cur: 
14
Grey Butte Wind Max: 
18.5
Grey Butte Wind Gust Max: 
36.8
Grey Butte Wind Avg: 
W
Castle Lake Temp Cur: 
28
Castle Lake Temp Min: 
28
Castle Lake Temp Max: 
42.5
Castle Lake Temp Avg: 
34.5
Castle Lake Snow Depth: 
45.13
Castle Lake Snow New: 
0
Mount Eddy Temp Cur: 
27
Mount Eddy Temp Min: 
27
Mount Eddy Temp Max: 
40.5
Mount Eddy Temp Avg: 
32.5
Mount Eddy Wind Cur: 
2
Mount Eddy Wind Max: 
3
Mount Eddy Wind Gust Max: 
5.28
Mount Eddy Wind Avg: 
S
Mount Eddy Snow Depth: 
48.39
Mount Eddy Snow New: 
0
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Cur: 
26.5
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Min: 
26.5
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Max: 
33
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Avg: 
30
Ash Creek Bowl Snow New: 
0.4
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Cur: 
22
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Min: 
22
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Max: 
33.5
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Avg: 
27.5
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Cur: 
0
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Max: 
17
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Gust Max: 
35.95
Mt. Shasta City Temp Cur: 
36
Mt. Shasta City Temp Min: 
36
Mt. Shasta City Temp Max: 
48
Mt. Shasta City Temp Avg: 
41.5
Mt. Shasta City Wind Cur: 
4
Mt. Shasta City Wind Min: 
0
Mt. Shasta City Wind Max: 
5
Mt. Shasta City Wind Avg: 
2.5
Mt. Shasta City Wind Avg: 
ESE
Sand Flat Comments: 
Not responding
Grey Butte Wind Min: 
12
Grey Butte Wind Avg: 
14.5
Mount Eddy Wind Min: 
1
Mount Eddy Wind Avg: 
1.5
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Min: 
0
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Avg: 
6
Ski Bowl Snow Settlement: 
1.6
Castle Lake Snow Settlement: 
1.5
Mount Eddy Snow Settlement: 
0.5
Ash Creek Bowl Snow Settlement: 
0
Measured Precipitation Oct: 
14.14
Normal Precipitation Oct: 
13.53
Percent Precipitation Oct: 
105
Measured Precipitation MTD: 
0.79
Normal Precipitation MTD: 
1.29
Percent Precipitation MTD: 
61
Measured Precipitation YTD: 
0.79
Normal Precipitation YTD: 
1.29
Percent Precipitation YTD: 
61
Today SWE: 
0.22
Tonight SWE: 
0.00
Tomorrow SWE: 
0.00
Today Wind Max 7-9: 
20
Tonight Wind Max 7-9: 
10
Tomorrow Wind Max 7-9: 
10
Today Wind Min 7-9: 
10
Tonight Wind Min 7-9: 
0
Tomorrow Wind Min 7-9: 
0
Today Wind Max 9-11: 
50
Tonight Wind Max 9-11: 
30
Tomorrow Wind Max 9-11: 
30
Today Wind Min 9-11: 
40
Tonight Wind Min 9-11: 
20
Tomorrow Wind Min 9-11: 
20
Today Snow Max 7-9: 
4.00
Tonight Snow Max 7-9: 
1.00
Tomorrow Snow Max 7-9: 
0.00
Today Snow Min 7-9: 
2.00
Tonight Snow Min 7-9: 
0.00
Tomorrow Snow Min 7-9: 
0.00
Today Snow Max 9-11: 
4.00
Tonight Snow Max 9-11: 
0.00
Tomorrow Snow Max 9-11: 
0.00
Today Snow Min 9-11: 
2.00
Tonight Snow Min 9-11: 
0.00
Tomorrow Snow Min 9-11: 
0.00
Ash Creek Bowl HS: 
44.83
Weather Station Discussion: 
The table below summarizes data reported from all of our weather stations over the last 24 hours.
Seasonal Stats Discussion: 
The wet season is October 1 through May 1. The table below summarizes recorded vs. normal precipitation amounts for the City of Mount Shasta.
Overall Danger Rating: 
Moderate
Current Time: 
4:00 AM