Submitted by mmadden on Mon, 12/19/2022 - 4:20am
Recent Observations:
Avalanche problems continue to be absent. A growing, variable crust is forming on E-SE-S-SW-W aspects. This has made for inconsistent travel conditions and fickel skiing/splitboarding. Reports from northerly aspects continue to find relatively dry unconsolidated snow. Forecasters experienced moderate winds at ridge tops near Giddy-Giddy Gulch and lower Casaval Ridge yesterday. Wind scouring of the upper-elevation snowpack was seen in blowing snow on lower Casaval Ridge (see photo) and above 11,000' on Sargent's Ridge. This isn't much of an avalanche concern as limited snow is available for transport. Forecasters didn't travel above 9,300' yesterday due to wind on exposed terrain.
Source: M. Madden 2022.12.18
Any climbers out there? Undoubtedly, the high pressure and low avalanche danger has lured a few into the possibility of climbing the mountain. The main crux for climbers is still soft, unconsolidated snow. Skis, splitboard, or snowshoes are mandatory to prevent arduous post-holing. When the terrain becomes too steep to skin, that's where the real work begins. Two days ago at 10,000 feet on Green Butte Ridge I sank in calf deep. So...climbing is possible, the weather is nice, the avalanche danger low...but the post-holing situation is extreme! Remember too, the days are short, the nights are cold and the wind chill factor on the upper mountain can be severe. A winter climb of Mt. Shasta is a different beast. Be prepared. Also, be sure to get your wilderness permit and summit pass prior to attempting a climb.
Mountain Weather:
An air stagnation advisory remains in effect until 10pm tonight. A weak atmospheric disturbance will move into the region this evening and tomorrow. This will bring a chance of light precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday. New snow totals won't be anything to brag about with only 1-2 inches expected. Additionally, a weak northbound warm front will gradually increase temperatures over the next few days. While forecasts of freezing level have shown some variability, the general trend shows it rising. This is evident on the Mt. Shasta Recreational Forecast. This could mean a chance of light freezing rain below 6,000' Tuesday into Wednesday.
Sea level pressure and precipitation (left), temperature at 500mb (right). Note: the two weather model images are 24h apart.
Source: NexLab, College of DuPage, ECMWF
Today 7-8 Weather :
Mostly cloudy. Freezing level below 6,000'
Today 7-8 Wind Direction:
SW
Today 8-9 Weather:
Mostly cloudy.
Today 8-9 Wind Direction:
W
Tomorrow 7-8 Weather:
Mostly cloudy with 50% chance of snow. Freezing level ~4,600'
Tomorrow 7-8 Wind Direction:
S
Tomorrow 8-9 Weather:
Mostly cloudy with 50% chance of snow.
Tomorrow 8-9 Wind Direction:
W
Tonight 7-8 Weather:
Mostly cloudy with slight chance of snow. Freezing level ~3,400'
Tonight 7-8 Wind Direction:
S
Tonight 8-9 Weather:
Mostly cloudy with slight chance of snow.
Tonight 8-9 Wind Direction:
S
20
17
34
25
31.5
24
34.5
29
55.05
0
0
Grey Butte Temp Min:
25.5
Grey Butte Temp Max:
33.5
Grey Butte Temp Avg:
28.5
Grey Butte Wind Cur:
18.5
Grey Butte Wind Max:
18.5
Grey Butte Wind Gust Max:
42.93
Castle Lake Temp Min:
29.5
Castle Lake Temp Avg:
33.5
Mount Eddy Temp Cur:
24.5
Mount Eddy Temp Min:
22.5
Mount Eddy Temp Avg:
29.5
Mount Eddy Wind Gust Max:
5.55
Mount Eddy Snow Depth:
36.32
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Cur:
22
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Min:
21
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Max:
30.5
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Avg:
25.5
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Cur:
24
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Min:
22
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Max:
27.5
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Avg:
24.5
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Cur:
11.5
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Max:
16.5
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Gust Max:
23.5
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Avg:
W
Mt. Shasta City Temp Cur:
19
Mt. Shasta City Temp Min:
16
Mt. Shasta City Temp Max:
42
Mt. Shasta City Temp Avg:
26.5
Mt. Shasta City Wind Cur:
0
Mt. Shasta City Wind Min:
0
Mt. Shasta City Wind Max:
4
Mt. Shasta City Wind Avg:
1
Mt. Shasta City Wind Avg:
N
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Min:
8
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Avg:
13
Ski Bowl Snow Settlement:
0.3
Mount Eddy Snow Settlement:
0.7
Ash Creek Bowl Snow Settlement:
0
Measured Precipitation Oct:
5.91
Normal Precipitation Oct:
9.51
Percent Precipitation Oct:
62
Measured Precipitation MTD:
2.58
Normal Precipitation MTD:
3.88
Percent Precipitation MTD:
66
Measured Precipitation YTD:
13.86
Normal Precipitation YTD:
34.89
Percent Precipitation YTD:
40
Tomorrow Wind Max 7-9:
10
Tomorrow Wind Max 9-11:
12
Tomorrow Wind Min 9-11:
5
Tonight Snow Max 7-9:
0.50
Tomorrow Snow Max 7-9:
1.50
Tonight Snow Min 7-9:
0.00
Tomorrow Snow Min 7-9:
0.00
Today Snow Max 9-11:
0.00
Tonight Snow Max 9-11:
0.50
Tomorrow Snow Max 9-11:
1.50
Today Snow Min 9-11:
0.00
Tonight Snow Min 9-11:
0.00
Tomorrow Snow Min 9-11:
0.00
Weather Station Discussion:
The table below summarizes data reported from all of our weather stations over the last 24 hours.
Seasonal Stats Discussion:
The wet season is October 1 through May 1. The table below summarizes recorded vs. normal precipitation amounts for the City of Mount Shasta.
Overall Danger Rating:
Low
