Submitted by casey.glaubman@... on Thu, 03/09/2023 - 4:11am
Recent Observations:
Forecasters visited different zones yesterday, and saw wildly different avalanche conditions and test results. Over in the Eddy Mountains, natural avalanches were observed in the top 4-8 inches of new snow. The weak layer was within the new snow, with none stepping down into the deeper layers. There is a melt/freeze crust from March 2nd that can be found on certain sunnier aspects, primarily at lower elevations. While avalanches have not been observed on this crust, if they did step down to that layer, that would create a very large avalanche. With all the new snow about to pile on top, it's worth remembering that crust is out there.
Over on Gray Butte, all the new snow was present, but there was no trace of the crust, likely due to the higher elevation and the winds preventing the melt-freeze from happening. Less consolidation of the new snow overall means there is a ton of new snow there available for transport. With winds rising throughout the day, that snow has to go somewhere, so it will be interesting to keep an eye on where it all ends up after things shake out.
The different conditions found on the same day really highlight the theme of our conditions for the area: Variable.
Mountain Weather:
Our last weather discussion concluded by saying "our region remains on the northern edge and will receive significant impacts over the next 72 hours." Well, we're about to see those significant impacts come to fruition today and tonight. The upper mountain, think Helen Lake area, could see upwards of 60 inches of snow between now and Friday afternoon. Combine that with projected high winds, with gusts up to 150 mph, and you've got the makings of a real hullabaloo up there. With rising temps throughout the day today and into tomorrow, the light, low-density snow we've been seeing will be replaced by heavier, more typical Cascade-style snow that we all know and love.
Looking slightly longer-term, there is another atmospheric river approaching the coast that could see rains starting to hit northern California early Sunday. The snow levels look as if they will rise to about 4,000 feet Friday afternoon, and 5,000-6,000 feet by the end of the weekend. While the models are in consensus that snow will continue to fall at higher elevations next week, there is a bit of discrepancy as to whether this starts late Monday or early Tuesday. In any case, this wild winter-ride we're on doesn't show any signs of slowing down. All we can do is keep our shovels at the ready and our arms and legs inside the ride.
Today 7-8 Weather :
Snow, mainly after 10am. Wind chill values as low as zero
Today 7-8 Wind Direction:
S
Today 8-9 Weather:
Snow, mainly after 10am. Wind chill values as low as -19. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph
Today 8-9 Wind Direction:
SW
Tomorrow 7-8 Weather:
Snow, mainly before 4pm. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph
Tomorrow 7-8 Wind Direction:
S
Tomorrow 8-9 Weather:
Snow, mainly before 4pm. Wind chill values as low as -22. Winds could gust as high as 155 mph
Tomorrow 8-9 Wind Direction:
W
Tonight 7-8 Weather:
Snow. Temperature rising to around 31 by 4am. Windy, with a south wind 33 to 43 mph increasing to 45 to 55 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph
Tonight 7-8 Wind Direction:
S
Tonight 8-9 Weather:
Snow. Wind chill values as low as -12. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph
Tonight 8-9 Wind Direction:
SW
19
13
26
20
141
0
0
15
9.5
23
16
178.5
0
0
Grey Butte Temp Max:
23.5
Grey Butte Temp Avg:
15.5
Grey Butte Wind Gust Max:
49.07
Castle Lake Temp Cur:
28.5
Mount Eddy Temp Cur:
18.5
Mount Eddy Temp Min:
10.5
Mount Eddy Temp Max:
23.5
Mount Eddy Temp Avg:
18.5
Mount Eddy Wind Gust Max:
7.08
Mount Eddy Snow Depth:
148.1
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Cur:
16.5
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Min:
12.5
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Max:
24.5
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Avg:
17
Ash Creek Bowl Snow New:
0
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Cur:
13
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Min:
9.5
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Max:
25
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Avg:
15
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Cur:
0
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Max:
0
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Gust Max:
0
Mt. Shasta City Temp Cur:
33
Mt. Shasta City Temp Min:
25
Mt. Shasta City Temp Max:
37
Mt. Shasta City Temp Avg:
32
Mt. Shasta City Wind Cur:
5
Mt. Shasta City Wind Min:
0
Mt. Shasta City Wind Max:
7
Mt. Shasta City Wind Avg:
2
Mt. Shasta City Wind Avg:
N
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Min:
0
Ash Creek Ridge Wind Avg:
0
Sand Flat Snow Settlement:
1
Ski Bowl Snow Settlement:
0.2
Mount Eddy Snow Settlement:
3
Ash Creek Bowl Snow Settlement:
2.2
Measured Precipitation Oct:
31.76
Normal Precipitation Oct:
26.65
Percent Precipitation Oct:
119
Measured Precipitation MTD:
2.05
Normal Precipitation MTD:
1.71
Percent Precipitation MTD:
120
Measured Precipitation YTD:
22.63
Normal Precipitation YTD:
14.41
Percent Precipitation YTD:
157
Tomorrow Wind Max 7-9:
50
Tomorrow Wind Min 7-9:
35
Tonight Wind Max 9-11:
100
Tomorrow Wind Max 9-11:
115
Tonight Wind Min 9-11:
80
Tomorrow Wind Min 9-11:
50
Today Snow Max 7-9:
17.00
Tonight Snow Max 7-9:
23.00
Tomorrow Snow Max 7-9:
9.00
Today Snow Min 7-9:
11.00
Tonight Snow Min 7-9:
17.00
Tomorrow Snow Min 7-9:
5.00
Today Snow Max 9-11:
23.00
Tonight Snow Max 9-11:
38.00
Tomorrow Snow Max 9-11:
14.00
Today Snow Min 9-11:
17.00
Tonight Snow Min 9-11:
32.00
Tomorrow Snow Min 9-11:
10.00
Weather Station Discussion:
The table below summarizes data reported from all of our weather stations over the last 24 hours.
Seasonal Stats Discussion:
The wet season is October 1 through May 1. The table below summarizes recorded vs. normal precipitation amounts for the City of Mount Shasta.
Overall Danger Rating:
High
