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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-01-01 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON January 2, 2019 @ 6:00 am
    Published on January 1, 2019 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations. Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Normal caution is advised. Icy slopes present dangerous climbing conditions. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet are mandatory if climbing on steep terrain, but realize that self arrest will be difficult.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely

Exercise normal caution when traveling in the backcountry. This means:

  • Always watch for isolated slabs. Two days ago, wind was still transporting snow onto easterly slopes.
  • Carry rescue gear and know how to use it. Essential rescue gear: avalanche beacon, shovel, and probe.

Forecast Discussion

Scoured icy slopes present slide for life conditions. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet are mandatory tools if attempting a summit of Mount Shasta. Self arrest will be difficult if not impossible.

Snow surfaces around Bunny Flat are extremely icy. Those looking to try out their new sled will find conditions fast and slick. Please be careful! Trees do not budge when an out of control sledder hits them.

Recent Observations

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Cold temperatures and dry weather have kept conditions mostly unchanged throughout the forecast area. Temperatures at the Old Ski Bowl have ranged from 8 to 29 degrees in the last 24 hours. East/northeast winds have averaged 9 mi/hr and gusted up to 31.

A tour of Castle Lake saw a mix of breakable and supportable crusts on sun exposed aspects. Shady areas below heart lake still retain a few inches of dry snow. Height of snow is around 80 cm (31 in). The lake seems to have a supportable layer of ice in most places and may be ready for ice skating. Exercise caution, though, as some thin layers were seen near shore around submerged logs.

No signs of instabilities have been observed. Overall snow surfaces are challenging: bulletproof ice, breakable crusts, sastrugis, scoured ridge lines, and chalky gullies.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

High pressure will continue to influence the region until Friday.

Freezing levels begin to increase today and will top out at over 9,000 feet Wednesday and Thursday. Winds should begin to taper off today and tonight giving the upper mountain a break from the pummeling it has been receiving.

This weekend, a new set of systems will bring precipitation and snow levels below 5000 feet.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 3:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 29 29 52 38.5 7
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 9 9 22 15 39 1 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 15.5 8 28.5 17 40.1 0 0 3
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 21.5 9 27.5 18 9 31 ENE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) station down
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 25 14 25 18 2 12 S 38.8 0 0.7
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Tuesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Mostly clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 37 28 46
Wind (mi/hr) North 10-15 North 5-10 North 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Weather Sunny. Windy and gusty. Low wind chills. Mostly clear. Windy and gusty. Sunny. Breezy.
Temperature (°F) 29 29 33
Wind (mi/hr) North 35-40 North 0 Northwest 20-25
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 8.41 15.21 55
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) 3.68 7.85 47
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 23.69 43.21 55

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.