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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-06 05:43

  • EXPIRED ON February 7, 2020 @ 5:43 am
    Published on February 6, 2020 @ 5:43 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

The avalanche danger remains LOW for all elevations and aspects throughout the forecast area. On Mount Shasta, firm snow surfaces mean a long slip and fall is possible on steep slopes. Savvy ice axe and crampon use recommended. Wear a helmet. Ice fall is likely during the middle of the day. Expect strong northwest wind into the weekend.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
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    Very Large
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Normal caution is advised. Practice good communication, carry the proper equipment (including an ice axe, crampons and helmet if on Mount Shasta) and have a travel plan. Snow surfaces are generally firm and variable. Lower elevations will see modest softening of snow surfaces in sunny areas. Shady slopes will remain crusty.

Forecast Discussion

Any climbers lured into a summit bid during the high pressure? The current snowpack is firm and icy. Watch out for falling rime ice in the alpine. Wear a helmet, carry and ice axe and crampons, know how to self-arrest. You need a Mt Shasta Wilderness summit pass if traveling above 10,000 feet, even if you don't plan on going to the summit. A wilderness permit and human waste packout bag are also required. All of these items are available for self-issue at the Bunny Flat trailhead or Mount Shasta Ranger Station. Annual passes ($30) are only available at the ranger station during business hours (Mon-Fri, 8 AM-4:30 PM).

Recent Observations

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Yesterday on Mount Shasta:

  • Avg Snow Depth: 67 inches (HS 170 cm) / Temperatures: 31.5 F min - 46 F max - 38 F avg / Wind: 8 mi/hr avg - 55 mi/hr max
  • Softening snow on sunny aspects below 9,000 feet. Some areas did not receive overnight re-freeze.
  • Boot penetration 3-5 cm in most places
  • Warm and very windy
  • Firm snow surfaces in shady areas
  • No sign of avalanche danger
  • Skiing/riding conditions "ok"...





    Couple of shots from yesterday by Doc Malee, up to about 9,200 feet in the Old Ski Bowl. "Almost got blown off my sled coming up the moraine", the Doc quoted. A spectacular lenticular cloud was visible on the mountain from town.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Painful to say, the weather will remain high and dry today, tomorrow, the next day, and the next...and even beyond that. Temperatures will cool over the next couple days. Wind will increase Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will slide down from the northwest and graze Northern California. We suppose it might be time to find some fresh snow elsewhere, pick another recreational activity, or make lemonade out of lemons and soak up a little vitamin D from that winter sun, despite a beat snowpack.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 40 33 52 41.5 5
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 37 32 45 38 51 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 44 31.5 46 38 67 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 42 31.5 42 35 9 55 ESE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 36 27.5 40 35 31 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 37 32 39 36 4 18 SE 49 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Thursday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Friday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Mostly clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 46 25 43
Wind (mi/hr) North 10-15 Northwest 5-10 North 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Sunny, windy Clear, windy Sunny, windy
Temperature (°F) 28 28 30
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 20-30 Northwest 30-40 Northwest 20-30
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 12.90 23.48 55
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) 0.12 1.21 10
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 3.97 8.27 48

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.