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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-28 05:00
- EXPIRED ON February 29, 2020 @ 5:00 amPublished on February 28, 2020 @ 5:00 am
- Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
Bottom Line
Avalanche danger is LOW. Be prepared for a firm snowpack at high elevations. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if making a summit attempt. Beware of falling rock. Enjoy the last day of spring temperatures. Cold weather returns tomorrow.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Character ?
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Aspect/Elevation ?
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Unlikely -
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLargeSmall
Avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution. Stay in the habit of bringing your avalanche rescue gear: shovel, probe, and transceiver. Follow best practices for wilderness and backcountry travel. Carry the ten essentials.
Forecast Discussion
Today will be the last day of spring temperatures. Tomorrow cold weather returns. If climbing the mountain this weekend, expect firm, snowy conditions. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet and know how to use them. Dress for cold weather.
Falling rock will remain a concern today.
Recent Observations
In the last 24 hours, temperatures near treeline on Mount Shasta have ranged from 36 to 44 degrees. Winds were light and out of the east/southeast.
Late spring conditions exist. Overall the snowpack is stable. Expect firm conditions at high elevations and in shady areas. A layer of soft corn snow has been forming on wind-protected, sun-exposed aspects during the late morning to mid afternoon hours. Gullies contain cinders blown from exposed areas.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
High pressure and an easterly flow will keep keep things mostly sunny and warm today. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler and winds are kicking up a notch. They could be strong at times.
Cold air will swing in from the north tomorrow dropping snow levels down to town. If we're lucky it'll bring up to a half an inch of snow, but do not trust to hope. It has forsaken these lands.
24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM
| Weather Station | Temp (°F) | Wind (mi/hr) | Snow (in) | Comments | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cur | Min | Max | Avg | Avg | Max Gust | Dir | Depth | New | Water Equivalent | Settlement | ||
| Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) | 30 | 30 | 64 | 44.5 | 2 | N | ||||||
| Sand Flat (6750 ft) | 32 | 27 | 50 | 38 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||||
| Ski Bowl (7600 ft) | 37.5 | 35 | 44 | 39.5 | 60.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Gray Butte (8000 ft) | 37.5 | 36.5 | 44 | 40 | 9 | 25 | ESE | |||||
| Castle Lake (5870 ft) | 41 | 40 | 55.5 | 46 | 28.5 | 0 | 0.1 | |||||
| Mount Eddy (6509 ft) | 37.5 | 30 | 48 | 39.5 | 2 | 7 | WSW | 44.8 | 0.2 | 0 | ||
| Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) | down | |||||||||||
| Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) | down |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Friday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Friday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Saturday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Mostly sunny. | Mostly cloudy. | A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly after 10 a.m. Mostly cloudy. |
| Temperature (°F) | 48 | 27 | 31 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | South 5-10 | West 5-10 | Northwest 5-10 |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | 0.00 / 0 | 0.00 / 0 | 0.04 / 0-0.50 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Friday | Friday Night | Saturday | |
| Weather | Mostly sunny. | Mostly cloudy. | .A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 10 a.m. Mostly cloudy. |
| Temperature (°F) | 29 | 20 | 19 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Southwest 25-30 | West 25-30 | West 20-25 |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | 0.00 / 0 | 0.00 / 0 | 0.04 / 0-0.50 |
Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City
| Period | Measured (in) | Normal (in) | Percent of Normal (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) | 12.90 | 29.23 | 44 |
| Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) | 0.12 | 6.96 | 2 |
| Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) | 3.97 | 14.02 | 28 |
