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Avalanche Forecast for 2018-12-30 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON December 31, 2018 @ 6:00 am
    Published on December 30, 2018 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations. Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Normal caution is advised. Icy slopes present dangerous climbing conditions. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet are mandatory if climbing into the upper regions of the mountain, but realize that self arrest will be difficult. Dry weather prevails until this weekend when wetter conditions are expected to return.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely

Exercise normal caution when traveling in the backcountry. This means:

  • Always watch for isolated slabs.
  • Continue to carry rescue gear and know how to use it. Essential rescue gear includes: avalanche beacon, shovel, and probe.

Forecast Discussion

Climbers beware. Scoured icy slopes present slide for life conditions. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet are mandatory tools if attempting a summit of Mount Shasta. Self arrest will be difficult if not impossible.

Recent Observations

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Temperatures rose into the lower 40s up to at least 8000 feet yesterday. Maximum sustained wind speeds topped out at 39 mi/hr with gusts peaking at 67.

No notable changes in conditions have occurred. Overall snow coverage is decent and the snowpack is stable. For enthusiastic sliders and riders, snow surfaces offer a variety of challenging conditions: bulletproof ice, breakable crusts, sastrugis, scoured ridge lines, and chalky gullies. Put those knee braces on and enjoy. You may discover a few inches of preserved dry snow in shady areas below treeline.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A ridge of high pressure will keep the region dry until this weekend when a return of wet weather seems likely. Freezing levels should be low through New Year's Day. Bundle up and hang on as strong to gale force winds are expected to chill the bone and batter the upper mountain today and tonight.

Did you know that words like "windy", "blustery", "mostly sunny", "today" used in weather forecasts have specific quantitative meanings? Check out the National Weather Service's glossary of forecast terms.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 3:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 27 25 39 30.5 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 34 26 42 36 40 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 33 33 45.5 40 43.9 0 0 0.5
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 31.5 29.5 43.5 38 21 67 NW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 station down
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 34.5 30.5 45 39.5 2 15 ESE 39.7 0 0.5
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Sunday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Sunday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 10 a.m. Mostly sunny. Windy and gusty. A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 10 a.m. Mostly sunny. Windy and gusty. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 37 21 30
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 15-20 North 10-15 North 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / trace / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 10 a.m. Mostly sunny. Windy and gusty. Low wind chills. Partly cloudy. Windy and gusty. Low wind chills. Sunny. Windy and gusty. Low wind chills.
Temperature (°F) 30 13 20
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 50-60 Norhtwest trace North 25-30
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / trace / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 8.41 14.70 57
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) 3.68 7.34 50
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 23.69 42.70 55

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.