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Avalanche Forecast for 2018-12-31 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON January 1, 2019 @ 6:00 am
    Published on December 31, 2018 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations. Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Normal caution is advised. Continue to watch for isolated wind slabs. Icy slopes present dangerous climbing conditions. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet are mandatory if climbing into the upper regions of the mountain, but realize that self arrest will be difficult.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely

Exercise normal caution when traveling in the backcountry. This means:

  • Always watch for isolated slabs. Wind continues to transport snow onto easterly slopes.
  • Carry rescue gear and know how to use it. Essential rescue gear: avalanche beacon, shovel, and probe.

Forecast Discussion

Climbers beware. Scoured icy slopes present slide for life conditions. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet are mandatory tools if attempting a summit of Mount Shasta. Self arrest will be difficult if not impossible. Winds will make the upper mountain unbearable.

Those heading to Bunny Flat to get a taste of winter fun should know that the parking lot and surface snow are extremely icy. That cheap brittle sled you just bought will shatter easily against trees and cars. You will, too. Please exercise caution and common sense.

Recent Observations

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Winds did not disappoint near and above treeline yesterday. Gray butte saw NNW winds averaging of 32 mi/hr and gusting up to 86. Even below treeline, conditions were blustery and frigid. Snow was still being transported at elevations above 10,000 ft, though it appeared to be sublimating or blowing long distances and unlikely was forming wind slabs. Ridges are becoming more scoured and rocky.

Warmer weather on Saturday followed by dropping temperatures has further developed the melt-freeze crust below treeline. Don't expect to find any worthwhile ski conditions. Snow surfaces are challenging: bulletproof ice, breakable crusts, sastrugis, scoured ridge lines, and chalky gullies.

view above treeline

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A high pressure ridge continues to slide through the Pacific Northwest which will keep the region cold and dry the next couple of days. Expect strong gusty winds and below zero wind chills above treeline. Wet weather looks to return late this weekend.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 3:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 29 29 52 38.5 7
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 15 15 36 28 40 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 12.5 12.5 40.5 31.5 42.5 0 0 1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 11.5 11.5 39.5 29.5 32 86 NNW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) station down
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 15 15 38 26 4 21 SE 38.7 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Monday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Mostly clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 28 18 38
Wind (mi/hr) North 10-15 North 10-15 North 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather Sunny. Windy and gusty. Below zero wind chills. Mostly clear. Windy and gusty. Below zero wind chills. Sunny. Windy and gusty. Low wind chills.
Temperature (°F) 17 17 31
Wind (mi/hr) North 35-40 North 0 North 30-35
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 8.41 14.96 56
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) 3.68 7.60 48
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 23.69 42.96 55

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.