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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-01-27 06:00
- EXPIRED ON January 28, 2019 @ 6:00 amPublished on January 27, 2019 @ 6:00 am
- Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
Bottom Line
The avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. Exercise normal caution. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and a helmet if venturing above treeline. Scoured, icy slopes present slide for life conditions. Be wary of falling rime ice.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Character ?
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Aspect/Elevation ?
Exercise normal caution in the backcountry:
- Carry a beacon, shovel, and probe and know how to use them.
- Create a travel plan; stick to your travel plan.
- Actively look for evidence of instability while on the snow such as fresh wind slabs or unstable cornices.
- Communicate well within your group. Expose only one person at a time to avalanche terrain.
Forecast Discussion
Falling ice and sliding climbers have been observed in avalanche gulch. This punctuates the seriousness of current conditions. Keep away from steep slopes with rime ice above and be prepared to turn around if icy surfaces are encountered. Self arrest will be difficult.
Recent Observations
Temperatures have ranged from 37 to 51 degrees in the last 24 hours near 7,600 feet. Light to moderate winds have blown mostly from the east.
Baseball size chunks of ice have been falling from the upper regions of Avalanche Gulch.
A climber took a 400 foot fall on low angle terrain Friday night.
Expect to encounter a variety of surface conditions: rain runnels; frozen, breakable, lumpy snow; wind affected textures; icy ridgelines and morains. South and east facing, sun exposed aspects host the best conditions for skiing.
No recent signs of instability have been observed.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
High pressure will dominate during the next few days. Conditions are so mellow that an air stagnation advisory is in effect.
The warm, sunny, calm weather will inspire you to plant your garden. Go harvest some corn snow, but remember winter is not over.
24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM
| Weather Station | Temp (°F) | Wind (mi/hr) | Snow (in) | Comments | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cur | Min | Max | Avg | Avg | Max Gust | Dir | Depth | New | Water Equivalent | Settlement | ||
| Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) | 29 | 29 | 52 | 38 | 3 | N | ||||||
| Sand Flat (6750 ft) | 44 | 29 | 48 | 38 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | ||||
| Ski Bowl (7600 ft) | 45.5 | 37 | 50.5 | 46.5 | 96.6 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | ||||
| Gray Butte (8000 ft) | 46.5 | 41.5 | 49.5 | 46.5 | 12 | 37 | E | |||||
| Castle Lake (5870 ft) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Mount Eddy (6509 ft) | 45.5 | 38.5 | 49 | 43 | 2 | 8 | WSW | 70.6 | 0 | 2.5 | ||
| Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) | ||||||||||||
| Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Sunday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Sunday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Monday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Mostly sunny. | Partly cloudy. | Mostly sunny. |
| Temperature (°F) | 55 | 39 | 45 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | North 5-10 | Northeast 5-10 | Northeast 5-10 |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Sunday | Sunday Night | Monday | |
| Weather | Mostly sunny. | Mostly cloudy. | Mostly sunny. |
| Temperature (°F) | 40 | 35 | 35 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Northwest 10-15 | North 0 | Northeast 10-15 |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City
| Period | Measured (in) | Normal (in) | Percent of Normal (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) | 13.93 | 21.22 | 66 |
| Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) | 5.52 | 6.01 | 92 |
| Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) | 5.52 | 6.01 | 92 |
