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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-01-27 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON January 28, 2019 @ 6:00 am
    Published on January 27, 2019 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

The avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. Exercise normal caution. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and a helmet if venturing above treeline. Scoured, icy slopes present slide for life conditions. Be wary of falling rime ice.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?

Exercise normal caution in the backcountry:

  • Carry a beacon, shovel, and probe and know how to use them.
  • Create a travel plan; stick to your travel plan.
  • Actively look for evidence of instability while on the snow such as fresh wind slabs or unstable cornices.
  • Communicate well within your group. Expose only one person at a time to avalanche terrain.

Forecast Discussion

Falling ice and sliding climbers have been observed in avalanche gulch. This punctuates the seriousness of current conditions. Keep away from steep slopes with rime ice above and be prepared to turn around if icy surfacesĀ are encountered. Self arrest will be difficult.

Recent Observations

Temperatures have ranged from 37 to 51 degrees in the last 24 hours near 7,600 feet. Light to moderate winds have blown mostly from the east.

Baseball size chunks of ice have been falling from the upper regions of Avalanche Gulch.

A climber took a 400 foot fall on low angle terrain Friday night.

Expect to encounter a variety of surface conditions: rain runnels; frozen, breakable, lumpy snow; wind affected textures; icy ridgelines and morains. South and east facing, sun exposed aspects host the best conditions for skiing.

No recent signs of instability have been observed.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

High pressure will dominate during the next few days. Conditions are so mellow that an air stagnation advisory is in effect.

The warm, sunny, calm weather will inspire you to plant your garden. Go harvest some corn snow, but remember winter is not over.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 29 29 52 38 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 44 29 48 38 81 0 0 3
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 45.5 37 50.5 46.5 96.6 0 0 2.2
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 46.5 41.5 49.5 46.5 12 37 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 45.5 38.5 49 43 2 8 WSW 70.6 0 2.5
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft)
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft)

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Sunday Night
(11 p.m. to 5 a.m.)
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Weather Mostly sunny. Partly cloudy. Mostly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 55 39 45
Wind (mi/hr) North 5-10 Northeast 5-10 Northeast 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather Mostly sunny. Mostly cloudy. Mostly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 40 35 35
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 10-15 North 0 Northeast 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2019 (the wet season) 13.93 21.22 66
Month to Date (since Jul 1, 2020) 5.52 6.01 92
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2020) 5.52 6.01 92


This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.