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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-03-17 06:48

  • EXPIRED ON March 18, 2019 @ 6:48 am
    Published on March 17, 2019 @ 6:48 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low for all elevations and aspects. Use caution if traveling under heavily rimed cliff features. Wearing a helmet is always recommended when traveling in steep terrain. Small loose-wet avalanches are possible during mid-afternoon hours on steep solar aspects. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Natural and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely today. Loose-wet instabilities are possible on southerly facing slopes. These will remain inconsequential and are not expected to be large enough to bury a person.  Normal caution is advised. Roller balls, pinwheels and small pin shaped sluffs are all clues to warming conditions and loose-wet avalanches in steep terrian. 

Normal caution means:

  • Have a plan, but be able to adjust based on the conditions you meet and the skills you have.
  • Wear a helmet if below rime plastered rocks. Large chunks of rime can cause serious injury.
  • Travel one at a time on and below steep slopes.
  • If you see roller balls or pinwheels, it might be time to head on over to a different aspect.
  • Bring the gear and skills necessary for avalanche rescue.

Forecast Discussion

Clear skies and warm temperature may tempt the few brave climbers today. If climbing use extra caution around rimed cliff features as they may shed in the afternoon. Floatation with skis or snowshoes is recommended due to deep boot penetration in spots. A summit pass and human waste packout bag is required if you are climbing above 10,000 feet on Mount Shasta.

Recent Observations

Blue skies, calm winds and warm temperatures were seen on Mount Shasta yesterday.  A day time high of 45 degrees F was recorded at 2 p.m. at 8,000 feet. Night time lows reached 35 degrees F on Mount Shasta last night. Mount Eddy recorded a daytime high of 47 degrees F and a night time low of 26 degrees F.

A settled and variable snow pack exist throughout the forecast area. One could describe the surface texture as “cornish” meaning a melt freeze cycle has allowed for soft grains to form in isolated areas. Other areas host variable surface textures from hard wind effected ridgelines to sticky wet snow below treeline.   

View of the mostly clear sky yesterday afternoon from 9,500 feet in Old Ski Bowl on Mount Shasta:

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Early morning clouds will give way to clear sunny skies today.  Soak it up while it lasts, a wetter and cooler regime will resume tomorrow night.  Until then, expect calm variable winds throughout the area. Clear skies tonight will bring night time lows to well below freezing temperatures.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 6:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 36 26 62 43.5 2 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 27 21 50 32 138 0 0 2
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 35.5 30.5 47 37.5 173 0 0 3
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 37 35.5 45 40 6 25 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 station not responding
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 32 25.5 47.5 37.5 2 6 WSW 133 0 2
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft)
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft)

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Sunday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Sunday Night
(11 p.m. to 5 a.m.)
Monday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Weather Partly cloudy then clearing Clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 50 28 45
Wind (mi/hr) Variable 0-5 Variable 0-5 Variable 0-5
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather Sunny Clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 32 17 33
Wind (mi/hr) Variable 5-10 Variable 0 South 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2019 (the wet season) 31.74 33.20 96
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2020) 2.21 3.70 60
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2020) 23.33 17.99 130

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.