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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-03 06:00
- EXPIRED ON February 4, 2020 @ 6:00 amPublished on February 3, 2020 @ 6:00 am
- Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
Bottom Line
Avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations. Temperatures will remain frigid today and tonight. Expect a firm, icy snowpack everywhere. Bring an ice axe and crampons if ascending steep terrain.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Character ?
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Aspect/Elevation ?
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Unlikely -
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLargeSmall
Use normal caution while traveling in the backcountry. This means you should still carry avalanche rescue equipment, have a travel plan, and watch out for isolated slabs.
Forecast Discussion
Be prepared for frigid temperatures. They'll continue until tomorrow. An ice axe and crampons will be mandatory if climbing into steep terrain. The snow pack is firm and icy everywhere. Snowmobiles will lose traction on medium angle slopes and skiers will regret having dull edges.
Recent Observations
In the last 24 hours, Mount Shasta has received no new snow.Temperatures at 7,600 feet steadily dropped throughout the day and night reaching a low of 9°F early this morning. Wind chills fell below 0 at times. Northwest winds have been moderate, maxing out at 23 mi/hr, though visuals of the upper mountain saw it getting blasted by strong winds. Snow was still being transported, but no loading was occurring.
Snow surfaces at all elevation bands have become hardened and icy with a few small scabs of wind blown snow here and there.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
Air will continue to flow in from the far north today keeping things cold. Temperatures above treeline will be in the single digits. Winds will be from the north and will remain in the moderate to strong range this morning, though they may begin to taper off this afternoon.
A few fluries may fall early this morning, but high pressure is settling in. Dry, clear conditions will dominate the forecast this week. Warmer temperatures return tomorrow.
24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM
| Weather Station | Temp (°F) | Wind (mi/hr) | Snow (in) | Comments | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cur | Min | Max | Avg | Avg | Max Gust | Dir | Depth | New | Water Equivalent | Settlement | ||
| Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) | 36 | 33 | 58 | 44 | 2 | N | ||||||
| Sand Flat (6750 ft) | 13 | 13 | 26 | 18 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Ski Bowl (7600 ft) | 7 | 7 | 24.5 | 16 | 67.7 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | ||||
| Gray Butte (8000 ft) | 8.5 | 8 | 22 | 14.5 | 11 | 37 | NNW | |||||
| Castle Lake (5870 ft) | 15.5 | 15.5 | 26.5 | 19 | 31.3 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Mount Eddy (6509 ft) | 13 | 13 | 23 | 16.5 | 2 | 11 | SE | 49.9 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) | down | |||||||||||
| Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) | down |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Monday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Monday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Tuesday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Mostly sunny. | Mostly clear. | Sunny with rising temperatures. |
| Temperature (°F) | 20 | 13 | 31 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | North 5-10 | North 5-10 | North 10-15 |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | 0.01 / 0 | 0.00 / 0 | 0.00 / 0 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Monday | Monday Night | Tuesday | |
| Weather | Mostly sunny. Windy. Wind chills as low as -14. | Mostly clear. Windy. Wind chills as low as -14. | Sunny. Windy. |
| Temperature (°F) | 9 | 9 | 25 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | North 25-30 | North 25-30 | North 30-35 |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | 0.01 / 0 | 0.00 / 0 | 0.00 / 0 |
Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City
| Period | Measured (in) | Normal (in) | Percent of Normal (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) | 12.90 | 22.75 | 57 |
| Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) | 0.12 | 0.48 | 25 |
| Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) | 3.97 | 7.54 | 53 |
