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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-09 06:30

  • EXPIRED ON February 10, 2020 @ 6:30 am
    Published on February 9, 2020 @ 6:30 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger will remain LOW today. Firm and icy snow surfaces dominate the backcountry. Some softening will occur on southerly slopes in the afternoon. Wear a helmet, carry an ice axe and crampons, and continue to watch for falling ice if traveling above treeline on Mount Shasta. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Normal caution is advised. Always carry avalanche rescue equipment: transceiver, probe, and shovel. Don't let the LOW danger rating lull you into complacency. It is essential to be familiar with your gear. Always check that your equipment is in proper functioning order BEFORE you leave the trailhead. Practice good communication and have a travel plan.

Snow surfaces are firm and variable. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet are recommended for travel on Mount Shasta. Lower elevations could see modest softening of snow surfaces in sunny areas, but shady slopes will remain firm and crusty. 

Forecast Discussion

Climbers interested in ascending Mount Shasta this week will need to be prepared for firm, icy, and very windy conditions. Solid ice axe, crampon, and self-arrest skills mandatory. You need a Mt Shasta Wilderness summit pass if traveling above 10,000 feet, even if you don't plan on going to the summit. A wilderness permit and human waste packout bag are also required. All of these items are available for self-issue at the Bunny Flat trailhead or Mount Shasta Ranger Station. Annual passes ($30) are only available at the ranger station during business hours (Mon-Fri, 8 AM-4:30 PM).

We had a good showing of eager backcountry users excited to learn and practice avalanche rescue techniques at this weekend's free avalanche awareness and companion rescue clinics. Thanks for all the support. Our next Know Before You Go presentation and companion rescue beacon clinic will be held Friday, March 6th - 7 PM at Shasta Mountain Guides and Saturday, March 7th - 9 AM at The Fifth Season.

Recent Observations

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In the last 24 hours, Mount Shasta has received no new snow. Strong winds out of the north have kept temperatures mostly below freezing. An average temperature of 21 F was recorded at 8,000 feet on Gray Butte. 

Hard wind glazed and icy snow surfaces remain across the forecast area.  Strong winds out of the northwest discouraged any hopes of snow surfaces softening up yesterday. 

Blowing snow was seen high in the alpine, but no wind loading was occurring. 

[Photo -2.9.2020- Looking up Avalanche Gulch from 7,800 feet near Horse Camp]

 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

The Mount Shasta area will host another day of sunshine and wind as high pressure continues to dig in and nudge east over Northern California and Oregon. Strong winds will be out of the northeast today.  Daytime high temperatures will reach the lower to mid 30's. The northerly wind will allow temperatures to drop to the upper 20's tonight.  Warm and dry weather will continue until Thursday. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 40 32 60 44.5 5
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 16 14 31 23 50 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 24.5 11.5 40.5 24 66 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 17.5 12.5 32.5 20 13 43 SE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 18 18 29.5 23.5 31 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 19 16 26.5 20.5 4 21 SE 48 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Sunday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Sunday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny and breezy Clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 33 22 40
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 10-15 Northeast 10-15 Northeast 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather Sunny, windy Clear, windy Sunny, windy
Temperature (°F) 30 29 31
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 40-45 Northeast 40-45 Northeast 30-35
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 12.90 24.22 53
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) 0.12 1.95 6
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 3.97 9.01 44

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.