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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-24 06:15

  • EXPIRED ON February 25, 2020 @ 6:15 am
    Published on February 24, 2020 @ 6:15 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution. Be prepared for a firm snowpack. A slip or fall on steep icy slopes could be difficult to arrest. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if ascending into alpine terrain. Beware of falling rock. Sunny and dry weather will continue. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Always stay in the habit of carrying the proper equipment for avalanche rescue: a beacon, shovel, and probe. Come prepared for firm conditions above treeline. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if ascending steep slopes. Solar radiation, warmer temperatures, and wind may loosen the hold the snowpack has on rocks. Beware of rockfall if traveling in the alpine. Don't forget to purchase a SUMMIT PASS if ascending above 10,000 feet. 

Recent Observations

In the last 24 hours, Mount Shasta has received no new snow. Temperatures have remained mostly above freezing, reaching a high of 40 deg F at noon.

Gale force winds have been northwest averaging 31 mi/hr and gusting to an impressive 74 mi/hr on Gray Butte. The strong wind kept the snowpack firm and icy. 

The ice on Castle Lake is still supportable though lookout for weak spots along the edges.  A consolidated snowpack with spring melt-freeze conditions continues.  Solar aspects saw some modest softening during afternoon hours. Use caution as many obstacles like bushes and rocks exist.

No signs of instability have been seen.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

One more day of breezy conditions, then clear calm weather accompanied by much warmer than average temperatures will set in. Temperatures could approach the low 50's this week with cold nights in the upper 20's. Similar conditions will continue until this weekend when a small chance at some precipitation could quench our thirst. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 30 30 54 41 3
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 33 32 41 36 45 0 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 34.5 34 40 36.5 63 0 0 1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 34.5 31.5 37 35 32 74 NW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 32.5 26 48.5 36 29 0 1
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 33.5 25 42 35 3 18 SSE 46 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Monday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 42 30 49
Wind (mi/hr) North 5-10 North 5-10 Northeast 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather Sunny. Windy. Clear Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 29 29 34
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 45-50 North 30-35 North 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 12.90 28.14 46
Month to Date (since Jun 1, 2024) 0.12 5.87 2
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 3.97 12.93 31

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.