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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-25 06:15

  • EXPIRED ON February 26, 2020 @ 6:15 am
    Published on February 25, 2020 @ 6:15 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Sunny and dry weather will continue. LOW avalanche danger exists with normal caution advised. Sliding falls on firm snow surfaces remain a hazard.  A slip or fall on steep icy slopes could be difficult to arrest. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if ascending steep terrain. Beware of falling rock.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Moderate wind and below-freezing temperatures have allowed decent surface refreeze. Anticipate firm snow surfaces this morning. It will quickly soften as the wind dies off, and temperatures rise. However, shaded northerly aspects, wind-exposed, and higher elevation slopes may remain firm all day.  Sliding falls on firm snow surfaces is the primary concern. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if ascending steep slopes. Beware of rockfall if traveling in the alpine as solar radiation, warmer temperatures, and wind may loosen the hold the snowpack has on rocks. 

Recent Observations

Our snowpack continues to take on late spring characteristics. Overall the snowpack is stable, shallow, firm, and variable. Gullies contain cinders blown from exposed areas. A layer of soft corn snow has been forming on wind-protected, sun-exposed aspects during the late morning to mid afternoon hours. 

In the last 24 hours:

  • Mount Shasta has received no new snow.
  • Temperatures have reached a high of 37 deg F at 4 PM and have dropped below freezing around 1 AM.
  • Wind speeds decreased after 9 AM, averaging 9 mi/hr on Gray butte. 

 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Similar to yesterday, the weather will be full of sunshine as a dry air mass has moved in for the workweek. Wind should begin to decrease today, especially for the Eddies and lower elevations on Mount Shasta. Cold nights and mornings will quickly give way to warmer temperatures during this dry week.  These pronounced temperature swings will allow for adequate windows of spring skiing conditions. There is a chance for fresh snow to arrive late this weekend into early next week. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 3:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 34 30 56 42.5 4
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 27 27 41 35 44 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 29 29 41 35.5 63 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 31.5 28.5 37.5 34 9 49 SE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 31 31 40 35.5 29 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 35.5 33 39 36 3 16 SE 46 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Tuesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 49 33 52
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 5-10 North 0-5 Northwest 0-5
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Weather Sunny. Clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 34 31 31
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 20-25 Northwest 10-15 West 20-25
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 12.90 28.42 45
Month to Date (since Jun 1, 2024) 0.12 6.15 2
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 3.97 13.21 30

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.