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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-03-04 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON March 5, 2020 @ 6:00 am
    Published on March 4, 2020 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW. Be prepared for a firm snowpack. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if making a summit attempt. Beware of falling rock and small loose-wet slides. It's going to be another spring day. Snowy, cold weather returns Friday night.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Very Likely
  • Size ?
    Very Large

Avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution. Stay in the habit of bringing your avalanche rescue gear: shovel, probe, and transceiver. Follow best practices for wilderness and backcountry travel. Carry the ten essentials.

If climbing the mountain, be prepared for firm conditions. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet and know how to use them. Beware of small loose-wet slides under warm, sunlit slopes. Expect rockfall at any time.

Forecast Discussion

You need a Mount Shasta summit pass if traveling above 10,000 feet. A wilderness permit and human waste packout bag are also required. All of these items are available for self-issue at the Bunny Flat trailhead or Mount Shasta Ranger Station. Annual passes are available at the ranger station during business hours (Mon-Fri, 8 a.m - 4:30 p.m.).

Recent Observations

On Mount Shasta, near treeline temperatures remained above freezing in the last 24 hours peaking out at 51 degrees F. Winds were calm to light.

Overall, the snowpack is stable, firm, and shallow and is disappearing below 5,000 ft. Many rocks are scattered across the snow, fallen from exposed patches above. Snow surfaces are variable and, in places, covered with wind-blown cinders and sand.

Wind protected, sun-exposed aspects have been softening up during the early to mid-afternoon hours.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

High pressure will bring another spring day - sunny weather, light to moderate winds, and temperatures in the high 40s.

The high will begin to erode tomorrow setting us up for a blast of cold air from the north on Friday night. Snow levels could drop to as low as 2,000 ft. By Saturday night, we could see up to 6 inches of snow.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 37 31 56 43.5 6
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 31 29 47 37 39 0 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 37 34 50.5 40.5 58.5 0 0 0.9
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 40 36.5 47.5 41 2 18 ESE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 39 32.5 54 41.5 26.9 0 0.8
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 39 35.5 46.5 41 2 11 W 44.1 0 1
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Wednesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Northwest winds changing to southwest. Mostly clear. Mostly sunny. Increasing winds.
Temperature (°F) 49 34 46
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 0-5 Southwest 5-10 South 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather Sunny. Mostly clear. Breezy. Mostly sunny. Windy.
Temperature (°F) 32 31 31
Wind (mi/hr) West 10-15 Southwest 15-20 Southwest 30-35
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 12.90 30.28 43
Month to Date (since Jun 1, 2024) 0.78 2
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 3.97 15.07 26


This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.