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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-12-22 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON December 23, 2020 @ 6:00 am
    Published on December 22, 2020 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution. It's clear sailing until Christmas when a storm is scheduled to bring several inches of snow at high elevations.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?

Avalanche danger is LOW, but remain in the game by thinking about terrain, weather, snowpack, and the human factor. Ninety percent of avalanches are caused by you - the human being. Be aware of how your decisions impact you and your group as you travel in and near avalanche terrain.

Forecast Discussion

We respectfully request that 4-wheeling enthusiasts refrain from using lower Sand Flat road. It is time to let this area go to non-motorized use for the winter. Thank you.

Recent Observations

I don't know where it came from, but it looks like about a half an inch of snow fell late last night in the Old Ski Bowl (7,600 ft). Strong northwest winds likely blew it all away.

Above treeline, you'll find some old wind hardened snow in low angle gullies, but the rest has disappeared with the wind. Mostly rock remains.

Near and below treeline, there is up to two feet of crusty snow. The cross country skiing is actually quite nice around Sand Flat.

For those who have noticed that the Sand Flat weather station is not reporting correct snow depth, the sensor tower has been knocked over. The California Department of Water Resources, who manages this station, has been notified.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A high pressure ridge will keep things uneventful for the next couple of days. Expect clear, sunny weather.

Close to an inch of precipitable water should fall during Christmas weekend, with the bulk coming Christmas day. Snow levels will be high though, starting near 6,000 ft and dropping to 4,000 ft at the tail end of the front. You may have to climb for a white Christmas. But that is 3 days away so let's not be too hasty with the numbers yet.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 34 28 54 39.5 4
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 22 22 45 32 25 Snow depth measured by hand. Depth sensor not working.
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 16.5 16.5 44.5 33 20.9 0.1 0.03 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 16.5 16.5 40 31.5 15 55 W
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 23 23 44.5 35 5.9 0 0.5
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 20 20 44.5 33 2 7 SSW 16.4 0.3 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 19 19 42 32 24 1.3 0
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 15 15 39 28.5

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Tuesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Blustery. Mostly clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 29 23 38
Wind (mi/hr) North 10-15 North 5-10 Northeast 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Weather Sunny. Windy. Low wind chills. Mostly clear. Blustery. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 25 24 40
Wind (mi/hr) North 35-40 North 20-25 East 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 2.39 12.60 19
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 0.69 5.24 13
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 15.30 40.60 38

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.