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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-01-19 05:30

  • EXPIRED ON January 20, 2021 @ 5:30 am
    Published on January 19, 2021 @ 5:30 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low. The snowpack is capped off with a smooth, widespread crust. Exercise normal caution while traveling in the backcountry. Strong winds and near freezing temperatures are expected today. Firm, icy slopes present slide-for-life conditions at upper elevations.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Avalanche danger is low. Use normal caution as you travel. Firm, icy conditions and breakable crusts are the main hazards for which to be prepared. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if ascending steep terrain. Expect slide-for-life conditions.

Forecast Discussion

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Recent Observations

Snow surfaces had not softened yesterday by 1:00 p.m. A crust that is thick enough to support skis but breakable under foot is widespread above treeline. Hardened ruts from sliders and riders make clipping a ski possible. The height of snow in the Old Ski Bowl is 39 inches.

Winds kicked up last night, maxing at 45 mi/hr and gusting up to 75. As of 5:00 a.m., easterly winds are still strong, though there is no snow up there available for transport.

The snowpack at Castle Lake is barely usable. Ash Creek Butte is reporting 33 inches of snow and the temperatures out there have remained mostly below freezing in the last 24 hours.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Near freezing temperatures and strong winds will keep the snowpack firm today despite the clear skies. Decreasing winds tonight and an uptick in temperatures tomorrow may give us another day of thin soft snow on sunny aspects

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft)
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 22 22 40 32 0 0 snow depth sensor broken
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 25.5 25.5 45 36 39.4 0 0 0.8
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 23.5 23.5 40 34 23 74 NNE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 24 24 38 32.5 6 0 16.2
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 22.5 22.5 40 32.5 3 8 S 34.1 0 0.5
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 18 18 35 27 32.7 0 0.2
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 15 14.5 34 23.5 3 15 S

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Tuesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Breezy. Clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 37 31 44
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 20-25 East 10-15 Northeast 0-5
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Weather Sunny. Windy. Clear. Breezy. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 37 37 37
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 40-50 Northeast 20-25 North 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 5.75 19.48 30
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 2.17 4.27 51
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 2.17 4.27 51

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.