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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-01-21 05:00

  • EXPIRED ON January 22, 2021 @ 5:00 am
    Published on January 21, 2021 @ 5:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low. The snowpack encases hidden and exposed rocks. Popular climbing routes on Mount Shasta are tracked out and sun deprived areas are firm. Temperatures, clouds, and winds today will probably keep all surfaces hard and icy. If you can find snow at high elevations, be prepared for slide-for-life conditions.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Avalanche danger is low. Use normal caution as you travel. Firm, icy conditions are the main hazards for which to be prepared. Not much snow exists at high elevations, but if ascending high into the alpine regions, prepare for slide-for-life conditions. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if ascending steep terrain.

Recent Observations

Spring skiing was in yesterday if your timing was right. The best snow presented on slopes exposed to direct sun between 1:00 and 2:00 p.m. Skirting the skier's right of gullies provided the best lines. Winds were calm to light. The thin, soft snow was only an inch or two deep and rocks were lurking. Core shots were possible. Straying too far out of gullies was risky. There were plenty of exposed rocks, too. Below treeline -- below Horse Camp -- was a nightmare of hardened tracks laid by snowshoers, hikers, and skiers. Spiral fractures and blown ACLs weighed heavily on the mind.

Do not be deceived by the dusting of white you see on the upper mountain. Climbing conditions are not much better than you might find in late September. There's more rock than snow up there. Where you find snow, expect firm, icy surfaces.

No signs or concerns for avalanches were encountered.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A depressing winter is best survived by keeping your expectations low. Don't believe the point forecasts. We'll be lucky to get an inch of snow out of the next front moving in. It'll come late tonight.

But hope remains: at least six days of snow and cold temperatures are forecasted for next week.

Temperatures, clouds, and winds will likely keep the snowpack firm today. If you go in search of spring skiing, expect the window to be very narrow.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 30 23 50 34 2 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 32 23 45 34 0 0 snow depth sensor broken
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 35 35 48 39.5 38.8 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 35 35 48 41 4 31 SE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 37 29.5 46.5 38.5 6 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 37 32 51 40 2 4 WSW 11.6 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 36.5 32 44.5 36.5 32.3 0 0
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 35 32.5 41 37 8 19 W

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Thursday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Friday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Mostly sunny. A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 10 p.m. Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 4 p.m. Partly sunny
Temperature (°F) 38 22 29
Wind (mi/hr) Southwest 0-5 South 5-10 Northwest 0-5
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.07 / 0-1 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Mostly sunny. Breezy. A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 10 p.m. Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A 40 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 4 p.m. Partly sunny and cold.
Temperature (°F) 27 14 14
Wind (mi/hr) West 25-30 Southwest 20-25 Northwest 15-20
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.07 / 0-1 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 5.75 19.91 29
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 2.17 4.70 46
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 2.17 4.70 46

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.