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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-01-23 06:25

  • EXPIRED ON January 24, 2021 @ 6:25 am
    Published on January 23, 2021 @ 6:25 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Mount Shasta received 1 inch of new snow over the past 24 hours. Today will be mostly sunny with north wind. Significant avalanche activity remains unlikely today, but conditions will begin to change as new snow and wind start to form small snowdrifts near ridgelines. Firm and icy snow surfaces still dominate with many areas scoured to rock. Long, sliding falls are possible on steeper terrain. Watch for rockfall on the upper mountain.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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An inch of new snow will cover crusts with a layer of soft snow creating the classic dust on crust conditions. Still, expect firm and icy surfaces due to cloud cover and cool temperatures. The one inch of new snow and northerly wind may form small snowdrifts near ridge lines on leeward southerly aspects. Since we only received a touch of new snow, wind slab formation should remain minimal. More problematic wind slabs could form on wind-loaded slopes tomorrow if storm totals reach the higher end of forecasted amounts.

Avalanche activity remains unlikely today, but other hazards exist including rockfall and uncontrollable, long, sliding falls on icy slopes. Conditions will begin to change tomorrow as new snow and wind impact the forecast area. Monitor the snowpack while you travel. Be willing to step back into safer terrain if conditions exceed your group's comfort level. Even though the avalanche danger is low, stay alert and pay attention to signs of instability and changing conditions.

Forecast Discussion



It's the second to last day of the VIRTUAL SNOWBALL event. The typical in person party is our largest fundraiser of the year. The party is up to you this season, and so is the bidding! We've still got the silent auction and raffle going on (read: awesome stuff) via our VIRTUAL PLATFORM...SO GET ON IN HERE!

Recent Observations

Another quiet day on the hill with snow flurries throughout the day. 

  • New snow accumulation on mountain: ~1 inch [2.5 cm] / 0.11 SWE   (Trace amounts on the west side)
  • Wind: Variable 0-5 mph -  Gusts 31 mph E/SE
  • Temperature at treeline: Min 15 F - Max 23 F - Avg 19 F
  • Total height of snow: Mount Shasta - 40 inches [101.5 cm] / Castle Lake: 6 inches [15 cm] / Mt. Eddy: 11.5 inches [29 cm]
  • Firm and icy conditions with a little "dust on crust". Snow coverage is very thin and scoured to mostly rock along wind exposed terrain. Gullies have the best coverage, but still expect rocks. Old tracks, breakable crust and overall dicey skiing and riding conditions are widespread. 
  • Zero signs of avalanche danger



    South side of Mount Shasta yesterday 1.23.21 from Bunny Flat, Avalanche Gulch center. 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A little break in the action today, if you'd call yesterday action at all. Expect mostly clear skies for this fine Saturday with that pesky north wind on the mountain. Temperatures are cool, in the teens above treeline and near freezing below treeline (7,000 feet). Most attention is looking forward into Sunday and next week. A couple inches of lower elevation snow is expected Sunday. A stronger, cold low pressure system will likely bring heavy snow across Siskiyou County, Tuesday into Wednesday, especially the Mount Shasta area. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 34 30 50 39 1 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 22 17 26 23 0 0 0 0 snow depth sensor broken
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 16.5 15 23 19 39.7 0.8 0.11 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 16.5 16.5 20 18.5 5 31 ESE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 23.5 23.5 28.5 25.5 6 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 21.5 21.5 26 23.5 1 5 SSE 11.6 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 20 20 23 21.5 33.2 0.8 0
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 16.5 16.5 20.5 18 4 23 WNW

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Saturday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Saturday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Sunday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Partly sunny Increasing clouds Snow, snow level 2,000 to 3,000 feet.
Temperature (°F) 31 22 28
Wind (mi/hr) North 0-10 North/Northwest 0-10 Southwest 0-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 1-1 0.00 / 0-1 0.32 / 2-4
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
Weather Mostly sunny, windy. Increasing clouds, blustery. Snow after 10 a.m. Blustery.
Temperature (°F) 17 15 15
Wind (mi/hr) North 20-30 North 10-20 West 10-20
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.32 / 3-5

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 5.77 20.35 28
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 2.19 5.14 43
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 2.19 5.14 43

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.