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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-01-15 07:00:18

  • EXPIRED ON January 16, 2018 @ 7:00 am
    Published on January 15, 2018 @ 7:00 am
  • Issued by Andrew Kiefer - Mt Shasta Avalanche Center

LOW avalanche danger and generally safe avalanche conditions exist. Shallow snowpack hazards are still problematic. A series of storms beginning tonight will bring changing conditions throughout the week.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Normal caution is advised:

  • Ski and ride one at a time in avalanche terrain.
  • Don't regroup in run out zones.
  • Basic avalanche rescue skills are always essential in avalanche terrain.

Sparse coverage and icy slopes present significant travels hazards in the backcountry. Steep terrain above treeline is challenging and dangerous. Arresting a fall in these conditions is difficult. Watch for rocks and patches of bare ground below treeline.

Advisory Discussion

Normal caution and LOW danger continue in the backcountry today. Late this afternoon, the first of a series of storms will begin. Once again, mostly rain will fall below treeline, while near and above treeline areas will see variable snow accumulation. By tomorrow morning, new snow and strong southwest winds will likely develop wind slabs above treeline on Mount Shasta.

Recent Observations

Yesterday brought cloudy skies and unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs reached 60 degrees in Mount Shasta City and almost 50 degrees at 8,000ft. Light winds blew out of the southeast, shifting southwest overnight. The warm temperatures are melting snow quickly below 8,000ft. Mount Shasta continues to have the only useable snowpack with variable coverage. The snowpack is shallow below treeline, while above treeline, it is consistently 3-4ft deep.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

An active weather pattern is in store for the week. Westerly flow aloft will bring a series of fronts and weather systems. Tonight through Friday, expect periods of wet and windy conditions. Today, skies will be cloudy with highs in the 40s. Strong and gusty south winds will blow. A front will approach the area with precipitation set to begin after 4pm. By tomorrow morning, .35 inches of water is forecast for our area. Overnight, precipitation will come as rain up to 7,500ft, with several inches of snow falling above. Precipitation will diminish by mid-morning tomorrow, but expect light accumulation, 6,000ft snow levels, and gusty southwest winds. A break in the weather looks to come Tuesday night through Wednesday morning before another strong system impacts the area.

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THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 7.81 inches of water, normal is 18.58 inches, putting us at 42% of normal. For the month of January and 2018, we have received 1.98 inches of water, normal is 3.37 inches, which is 59% of normal. 

Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mount Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 38 35 59 47 1 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 41 37 50 42 11 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 39 39 49 43 23 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 38 37 47 42 6 18 SE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 40 40 52 44 0 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 40 40 49 43 2 9 S 9 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather A chance of rain and snow between 10am-4pm, then rain. Breezy. Chance of precipitation 80%. 100% chance of rain and snow.Breezy. Snow showers likely. Chance of precipitation 70%, reducing to 40% in the afternoon.
Temperature (°F) 40 31 34
Wind Direction South/Southeast South/Southeast West/Southwest
Wind Speed (mi/hr) 10-20 mph 15-20 mph, gusting 30 mph 5-10 mph
Expected Snowfall (in) <.5 <.5 <1
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather Windy. 30% chance of snow, then 80% chance of snow late this afternoon. Heavy snow and windy. 100% chance of precipitation. Snow showers likely, mainly before 11am. Then mostly cloudy.
Temperature (°F) 30 25 26
Wind Direction South/Southwest South/Southwest West
Wind Speed (mi/hr) 15-25 mph 30-40 mph, gusting 60-70 mph 20-30 mph, gusting 40 mph
Expected Snowfall (in) <.5 7-11 <1

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mount Shasta, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.