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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-01-23 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON January 24, 2019 @ 6:00 am
    Published on January 23, 2019 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations and aspects. Exercise normal caution. Continue to watch for isolated wind slabs. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and a helmet if venturing above treeline. Scoured, icy slopes present slide for life conditions.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?

Exercise normal caution in the backcountry. LOW avalanche danger does not mean NO avalanche danger:

  • Carry a beacon, shovel, and probe and know how to use them.
  • Create a travel plan; stick to your travel plan.
  • Actively look for evidence of instability while on the snow.
  • Communicate well within your group. Expose only one person at a time to avalanche terrain.

Small, isolated wind slab avalanches may still be encountered on leeward terrain. Cornices exist along ridgelines and could be human triggered. Identify terra firm by looking for trees, rocks, or other features that signify stable ground. Give them a wide berth.

Forecast Discussion

A skiff of new snow is expected today, but a period of high pressure is taking us into a holding pattern. Warm sunny weather may loosen up smooth crusty and chalky surfaces in the coming days creating more spring-like travel conditions.

Scoured, icy slopes present slide for life conditions. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet are mandatory if climbing into the upper regions of the mountain, but realize that self-arrest will be difficult.

Recent Observations

Temperatures have ranged from 16 to 39 degrees in the last 24 hours near 7,600 feet, with above freezing temperatures dominating yesterday afternoon and evening. Strong northwest winds blew on Gray Butte last night, gusting up to 39 mi/hr.

Height of snow (HS) at 7,600 feet is 104 cm (41 in). At 10,400 feet, HS is 260 cm (102 in).

An avalanche occurred along the west facing span of Green Butte ridge, most probably occurring naturally last Saturday.

Snow surfaces have been reported to be "spicy". Interpret this to mean wind affected, rain runneled, and crusty.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A high pressure system will swing warm moist air into area from the northwest today and tonight, though little precipitation is expected. Northwest winds could be strong to gale force above treeline but will subside tomorrow. Snow levels will increase from 5,000 to 7,000 feet, dropping back to 6,000 feet tomorrow. Warm, dry conditions will prevail in the coming days.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 3:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 31 31 48 39.5 1 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 37 14 37 28 86 0 0 1.5
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 37.5 16.5 39 30.5 103 0 0 1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 27.5 14 32.5 26 13 49 NW
Castle Lake (5870 ft)
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 39.5 22.5 39.5 32 2 13 SW 75.3 0 2
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft)
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft)

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Wednesday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Wednesday Night
(11 p.m. to 5 a.m.)
Thursday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Weather A 30 percent chance of rain after 10 a.m. Mostly sunny. Breezy and gusty. A 30 percent chance of showers before 10 p.m. Partly cloudy. Mostly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 42 27 44
Wind (mi/hr) West 15-20 Northwest 10-15 North 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather A 30 percent chance of snow after 10 a.m. Partly sunny. Windy and gusty. A 40 percent chance of snow showers before 10 p.m. Partly cloudy. Windy and gusty. Mostly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 30 25 33
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 45-55 Northwest 0 North 15-20
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2019 (the wet season) 13.93 20.35 68
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2020) 5.52 5.14 107
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2020) 5.52 5.14 107

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.