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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-01-28 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON January 29, 2019 @ 6:00 am
    Published on January 28, 2019 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

The avalanche danger is LOW. Steer clear of cornices and exercise normal caution. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and a helmet if venturing above treeline. Scoured, icy slopes present slide for life conditions. Be wary of falling rime ice.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?

Steer clear of cornices, both above and below. Warmer temperatures have been causing these to fail. Otherwise exercise normal caution:

  • Carry a beacon, shovel, and probe and know how to use them.
  • Create a travel plan; stick to your travel plan.
  • Actively look for evidence of instability while on the snow.
  • Communicate well within your group. Expose only one person at a time to avalanche terrain.

Example of a Cornice Failure.

Forecast Discussion

Falling ice and sliding climbers have been observed in Avalanche Gulch. This punctuates the seriousness of current conditions. Keep away from steep slopes with rime ice above and be prepared to turn around if icy surfaces are encountered. Self arrest will be difficult.

Recent Observations

Temperatures have ranged from 39 to 50 degrees in the last 24 hours near 7,600 feet. Winds have been calm to light.

Expect to encounter a variety of surface conditions: rain runnels; frozen, breakable, lumpy snow; wind affected textures; icy ridgelines and morains. South and east facing, sun exposed aspects host the best conditions for skiing.

Warm temperatures have been causing cornice failures along ridgelines of Middle Peak above Castle Lake.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A high pressure ridge will continue to keep things dry through Tuesday. A smattering of precipitation is expected Wednesday but Friday is the day we may begin to see a significant change in our current weather pattern.

Today expect partly sunny weather, temperatures in the high 40s, and calm to light winds.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 32 30 58 41.5 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 32 32 51 39 79 0 0 1.5
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 39 39 50.5 45 95.7 0 0 1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 42 42 55 47.5 3 25 WSW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) station down
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 37 37 54 46.5 2 9 WSW 69.8 0 1
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Monday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Monday Night
(11 p.m. to 5 a.m.)
Tuesday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Weather Partly sunny. Mostly cloudy. Mostly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 49 33 48
Wind (mi/hr) East 5-10 East 0-5 Northwest 0-5
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather Partly sunny. Mostly cloudy. Mostly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 36 28 31
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 5-10 West 0 Northwest 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2019 (the wet season) 13.93 21.43 65
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2020) 5.52 6.22 89
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2020) 5.52 6.22 89

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.