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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-01-29 05:00
- EXPIRED ON January 30, 2019 @ 5:00 amPublished on January 29, 2019 @ 5:00 am
- Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
Bottom Line
The avalanche danger is LOW. Steer clear of cornices, be cautious of loose wet sloughs, and exercise normal caution. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and a helmet if venturing above treeline. Scoured, icy slopes present slide for life conditions. Be wary of falling rime ice.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Character ?
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Aspect/Elevation ?
Steer clear of cornices, both above and below and be cautious of loose wet sloughs. Otherwise exercise normal caution:
- Carry a beacon, shovel, and probe and know how to use them.
- Create a travel plan; stick to your travel plan.
- Actively look for evidence of instability while on the snow.
- Communicate well within your group. Expose only one person at a time to avalanche terrain.
Forecast Discussion
Keep away from steep slopes with rime ice above. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet are mandatory if venturing above treeline, but remember self-arrest may be impossible.
Recent Observations
Temperatures have ranged from 37 to 49 degrees in the last 24 hours near 7,600 feet. Winds have been light and northwesterly.
Expect to encounter a variety of surface conditions: rain runnels; textured snow; icy ridgelines and morains. Sun exposed aspects host the best conditions for skiing.
The infamous crack creeping across Broadway has not shown notable signs of growth.
Warm temperatures have been causing cornice failures along ridgelines of Middle Peak above Castle Lake. A small loose wet slide was skier triggered on a steep, sun facing aspect.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
High pressure continues to deliver mostly sunny weather, temperatures in the high 40s, and calm to light winds.
Tomorrow a closed low system will graze the area bringing a slight chance of precipitation and snow levels above 6000 feet.
A front moving in Friday looks to bring over an inch of precipitable water and falling snow levels.
24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM
| Weather Station | Temp (°F) | Wind (mi/hr) | Snow (in) | Comments | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cur | Min | Max | Avg | Avg | Max Gust | Dir | Depth | New | Water Equivalent | Settlement | ||
| Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) | 46 | 31 | 55 | 44.5 | 2 | N | ||||||
| Sand Flat (6750 ft) | 33 | 30 | 51 | 38 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||||
| Ski Bowl (7600 ft) | 38.5 | 36.5 | 49 | 41 | 94.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||||
| Gray Butte (8000 ft) | 38.5 | 36 | 47 | 41 | 9 | 25 | NW | |||||
| Castle Lake (5870 ft) | station down | |||||||||||
| Mount Eddy (6509 ft) | 40.5 | 36 | 47.5 | 42 | 2 | 6 | WSW | 67.8 | 0 | 1.5 | ||
| Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) | station down | |||||||||||
| Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) | station down |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Tuesday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Tuesday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Wednesday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Mostly sunny. | Partly cloudy. | A slight chance of rain and snow after 4 a.m. Partly sunny. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
| Temperature (°F) | 49 | 30 | 47 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Northwest 0-5 | North 0-5 | Southeast 0-5 |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Tuesday | Tuesday Night | Wednesday | |
| Weather | Mostly sunny. | Partly cloudy. | A chance of snow after 4 a.m. Partly sunny. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
| Temperature (°F) | 32 | 29 | 29 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Northwest 10-15 | Northwest 0 | Southwest 0-5 |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / < 0.5 |
Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City
| Period | Measured (in) | Normal (in) | Percent of Normal (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) | 13.93 | 21.64 | 64 |
| Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) | 5.52 | 6.43 | 86 |
| Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) | 5.52 | 6.43 | 86 |
