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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-01-31 06:11

  • EXPIRED ON February 1, 2019 @ 6:11 am
    Published on January 31, 2019 @ 6:11 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

The avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. Exercise normal caution. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and a helmet if venturing into steep alpine terrain. Icy slopes pose slide for life hazard. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?

Exercise normal caution in the backcountry:

  • Carry a beacon, shovel, and probe and know how to use them.
  • Create a travel plan; stick to your travel plan.
  • Actively look for evidence of instability while on the snow such as fresh wind slabs or unstable cornices.
  • Communicate well within your group. Expose only one person at a time to avalanche terrain.
  • Watch out for falling rime ice.
  • Be prepared if icy slopes are encountered. 

Forecast Discussion

Today is the last day for the wonderful spring-like conditions that we have been enjoying for the last week. Get out and enjoy it while it lasts, but remember to stay safe and plan accordingly.  The alpine regions still host scoured, icy slopes that present slide for life conditions. Watch out for falling rime ice. A helmet, ice axe and crampons are a good idea if venturing above treeline.

Recent Observations

Temperatures have ranged from 33 to 43 degrees F in the last 24 hours near 7,600 feet on Mount Shasta. Winds have remained light, averaging 7 mi/hr, gusting up to 16 mi/hr. at 8,00 feet. The height of snow (HS) at 7,600 feet is 92 inches. 

Temperatures at Castle Lake ranged from 38 to 53 degrees F in the last 24 hours near 5,800 feet.  The temperature at Mount Eddy ranged from 32 to 46 degrees F near 6,500 feet. The wind has also remained light out of the south-west for the last 24 hours in the Eddies. The height of snow (HS) is 55 inches at 5,800 feet and 68 inches at 6,500 feet.  

Current snow conditions are variable with rain runnels and frozen, breakable and lumpy snow surfaces below treeline. Near treeline host, transitional snow surfaces where melt freeze, wind effected and sometimes breakable snow can be found. Above treeline, firm conditions remain on non-solar aspects. Icy ridgelines and morain tops, variable sastrugi exist in the alpine regions. Soft corn snow can be found on southerly facing, sunny slopes. 

No avalanches or signs of instability have been observed since last weekend.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

The current weather pattern is changing, as rain and snow begin to fall tomorrow morning and continue into the weekend.  A winter storm watch has been issued for elevations above 5,000 feet for Friday afternoon through Saturday for Siskiyou county. The slow-moving closed low-pressure system will move into our area Friday morning, bringing periods of heavy snow. Approximately 12 to 18 inches of snow will fall above 4,000 feet throughout the weekend. Snow levels will be near 5,900 feet Friday, 5,000 feet Friday night and 4,000 feet on Saturday. 

Get that sunshine, vitamin D, and the last helping of corn today as mostly sunny conditions will persist before the storm. Wind will remain calm to light out of the southeast today. Winds are expected to pick up after midnight tonight as the storm begins to impact the forecast area. 

 

 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 29 29 57 40 0 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 29 29 44 34 77 0 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 33 33 44 37 92 0 0 1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 35.5 35.5 42.5 38 7 18 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 40.5 38.5 53 43 55 0 1
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 32.5 32 46 37 2 5 WSW 68 0 1
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft)
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft)

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Thursday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Thursday Night
(11 p.m. to 5 a.m.)
Friday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Weather Mostly Sunny Windy, Snow likely after midnight Snow and strong winds
Temperature (°F) 45 32 33
Wind (mi/hr) Southeast 0-5 South 10-15 South 25-35
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 1-2 / 8-10
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Mostly Sunny Windy, Snow likely after midnight Snow and strong winds
Temperature (°F) 35 24 26
Wind (mi/hr) Southeast 0-5 South 0 South 30-40
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 1-2 / 6-8

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2019 (the wet season) 13.93 22.06 63
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2020) 5.52 6.85 81
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2020) 5.52 6.85 81

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.