You are here

Avalanche Forecast for 2019-04-11 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON April 12, 2019 @ 6:00 am
    Published on April 11, 2019 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low at all elevations, though continue to be wary of small, lurking, wind slabs in isolated areas. Firm, scoured, snow surfaces exist near and above treeline. Climbers will want an ice axe, crampons, and a helmet. Self-arrest will be difficult.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Wind has pummeled the upper mountain and seems to have sublimated more snow than it has deposited as wind slabs. Nonetheless, wind slabs may still lurk in isolated areas above treeline. If you run into chalky, cracking snow, be aware that wind slabs may be nearby on steep leeward slopes.

Forecast Discussion

Low avalanche danger does not mean we can turn our minds off in the backcountry. Exercise normal caution. Make a plan, travel through avalanche terrain one at a time, and bring your avalanche rescue tools.

Snow surfaces are firm, scoured, and smooth. Climbers suffering from summit fever will want an ice axe, crampons, and helmet. Under these conditions, self-arrest will be very difficult.

Recent Observations

The snowpack was firm and scoured near and above treeline late yesterday afternoon. An inch of two of sun softened surface snow (enjoy that tongue twister) could be found below 7,300 feet. Strong northwest winds were transporting some snow, but no significant signs of old or new wind slabs were seen.

The remains of 3 small to large (D1-D2), wet loose avalanches were seen in the old ski bowl on east, west, and south facing aspects. These were several days old.

Cornices were mostly still intact.

 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A couple of weak frontal systems will graze our forecast area over the next several days, but not much precipitation is expected. Building high pressure will give us several days of clear weather after Monday.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 38 38 54 47.5 3
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 31 23 42 33 131 0 0 2
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 28.5 23.5 41 34 174 0 0 1.5
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 26.5 20.5 38.5 32.5 15 55 SE
Castle Lake (5870 ft)
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 27 21.5 36 31 4 17 SE 125.4 0 2
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft)
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft)

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday (5 a.m to 5 p.m.)
Weather A chance of snow before 11 a.m., then a chance of snow showers after 11 a.m. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Partly cloudy. Sunny. Breezy.
Temperature (°F) 37 28 43
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 5-10 Northwest 5-10 Northwest 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.02 / 0-0.25 0.01 / 0 0.01 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday (5 a.m to 5 p.m.)
Weather A chance of snow before 11 a.m., then a chance of snow showers after 11 a.m. Mostly cloudy. Windy, gusty, low wind chills. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Partly cloudy. Windy, gusty, low wind chills. Mostly sunny. Windy, gusty, low wind chills.
Temperature (°F) 21 21 32
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 30-35 Northwest 25-30 Northwest 35-40
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.02 / 0-0.25 0.01 / 0 0.01 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2018 (the wet season) 38.38 36.58 105
Month to Date (since Sep 1, 2019) 3.16 1.12 282
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2019) 29.97 21.37 140

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.