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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-04-13 06:15

  • EXPIRED ON April 14, 2019 @ 6:15 am
    Published on April 13, 2019 @ 6:15 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Expect another sunny, blustery spring day on Mount Shasta.  Avalanche danger is low at all elevations. Exercise normal caution if traveling in the backcountry. Snow surfaces are variable with smooth, firm, scoured and widespread icy patches. Climb and descend with care; know how to use your ice axe, crampons and wear a helmet if climbing steeper terrain. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Generally, safe avalanche condition exists in the backcountry and consequential avalanches are unlikely. Remember, LOW avalanche danger does not mean NO avalanche danger. 

Exercise normal caution:

  • Make a plan.
  • Watch for isolated wind slabs above treeline.
  • Travel through avalanche terrain one at a time.
  • Have the tools and skills necessary for basic avalanche rescue.

 

Forecast Discussion

The Mount Shasta spring climbing season is right around the corner. Be prepared and make sure you have the proper knowledge, skills and equipment to safely make a go of the mountain.  Weather conditions often change rapidly on Mount Shasta. A sunny day can quickly shift into full value winter conditions as late-season storms roll through. Make good decisions, know the limits of your group and don't climb into a whiteout. 

Recent Observations

In the last 24 hours:

TEMP: Near treeline (high/low): 43/24 deg F

WIND: 1 mi/hr average speed / 12 mi/hr max speed

No recent signs of instability have been observed.

Notes: Snow surfaces are firm and scoured near and above treeline. 

View of Avalanche Gulch, Mount Shasta yesterday. Photo: Jonathan Dove

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

With diminishing winds, clear skies and temperatures in the low 50s near treeline, today will be quite pleasant on Mount Shasta.  Building clouds late this afternoon will signal another front is moving in.  This moderate atmospheric river event will mostly miss the forecast area to the north.

Expect an increasing chance of rain and snow showers through Monday. Up to an inch of snow or rain is possible tonight and tomorrow with snow levels starting near 7,900 feet then dropping to near 6,000 feet.  We could see upwards of 4 inches of new snow by Monday night. Sunny, clear and dry conditions are expected after Tuesday. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 6:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 38 38 51 47.5 3
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 28 25 43 33 128 0 0 2
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 34 23.5 42.5 32 172 0 0 2
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 36.5 22.5 39.5 31 1 12 SSE
Castle Lake (5870 ft)
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 38 27 38 33.5 3 13 SE 126 0 2
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft)
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft)

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Saturday Saturday Night Sunday (5 a.m to 5 p.m.)
Weather Mostly sunny. Building clouds in the afternoon Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or rain showers. Snow level near 7,900 feet Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers. Snow level near 6,000 feet.
Temperature (°F) 51 30 45
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 0-5 Northwest 5-10 Northwest 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.05 / 0-1 0.02 / 0-0.50
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Saturday Saturday Night Sunday (5 a.m to 5 p.m.)
Weather Mostly sunny, breezy. Building clouds in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers.
Temperature (°F) 33 31 33
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 10-15 Northwest 15-20 Northwest 20-25
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.05 / 0-1 0.02 / 0-0.50

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2018 (the wet season) 38.39 36.68 105
Month to Date (since Sep 1, 2019) 3.17 1.22 260
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2019) 29.98 21.47 140

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.