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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-12-09 06:50

  • EXPIRED ON December 10, 2019 @ 6:50 am
    Published on December 9, 2019 @ 6:50 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations. Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Normal caution is advised. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
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    Unlikely

Though unlikely, warming temperatures could cause small loose wet avalanches on solar aspects this afternoon. 

Exercise normal caution when traveling in the backcountry. This means:

  • Always watch for isolated slabs in leeward terrain.
  • Continue to carry rescue gear and know how to use it. Essential rescue gear includes: avalanche beacon, shovel, and probe.

Forecast Discussion

Yesterday Mount Shasta saw it's first "packed" parking lot of the season with many riders, snowmobilers, and outdoor recreationalists out to enjoy the snow. Please remember to be respectful of your fellow backcountry users and follow the Mount Shasta Wilderness regulations. Click here for a quick refresher of the wilderness boundaries. 

 

Recent Observations

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Clear blue skies were observed above 7,500 to 8,000 feet on Mount Shasta yesterday. A thick cloud layer blanketed everything below. Temperatures were increasing throughout the day. Roller balls and small loose wet "sluffs" were observed on direct south facing aspects.  Overall, a right side up snowpack with good stability was observed with 24 inches of four finger to fist hard snow above the December 6th rain crust. Smooth surfaces with little wind effect can be found on most aspects. Total height of snow averaged 42 inches near lower Casaval ridge. 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

High pressure has moved into the forecast area bringing sunny weather and increasing temperatures. Generally calm conditions with low winds will ensue today as low valley fog dissipates this morning. A small storm is forecasted to move through the area tomorrow. Light snow showers are possible. Little accumulation of snow is predicted. There will be a brief lull with mostly sunny weather on Wednesday then a larger storm will impact the area on Thursday. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 6:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 29 22 48 32.5 2 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 23 22 33 29 32.7 0 0.4 0.3
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 24 23 33 27 40 1.2 0.05 2
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 23 22.5 33 27 3 18 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 station down
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 26 25 33 29 1 6 WSW 25.1 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Monday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Clear becoming mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy, chance of snow showers
Temperature (°F) 38 31 36
Wind (mi/hr) North 5-10 West 0-5 South 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.02 / 0-1
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather Sunny Mostly clear Mostly clear becoming cloudy, chance of snow showers
Temperature (°F) 34 32 32
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 5-15 Southwest 0-5 Southwest 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.02 / 0-1

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 7.53 9.21 82
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) 4.85 1.85 262
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 45.27 37.21 122

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.