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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-12-26 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON December 27, 2019 @ 6:00 am
    Published on December 26, 2019 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution. Increasing temperatures and winds will transform surface snow tomorrow. Icy conditions persist. Use an ice axe and crampons if ascending steep slopes.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Avalanche danger is low. Exercise normal caution. This means:

  • Always watch for isolated slabs.
  • Be especially careful if the avalanche forecast mentions deep or persistent instabilities.
  • Basic avalanche rescue skills are always essential when you travel in avalanche terrain.

Forecast Discussion

Today will probably be the last day to enjoy the snow received last Sunday. Increasing temperatures and winds will transform the surface snow tomorrow.

Icy conditions persist. If ascending high into the alpine or on steep slopes, bring an ice axe and crampons and know how to use them.

Recent Observations

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In the last 24 hours on Mount Shasta, temperatures have remained below 22°F. Calm to light winds switched from south to east, peaking at 11 mi/hr. About a half inch of new snow fell. The current snow depth at the Old Ski Bowl is 51 inches.

Low density snow can still be found sitting on top of the stout 12/19 rain crust. Where it is thin, be light on your edges or you may be swept off your feet.

Avalanche Gulch and similar south facing areas and bordering ridges have received some wind affect. Soft, chalky surfaces, 2-8 inches that are well bonded to the ice crust below, will be encountered.

No instabilities or obvious signs of avalanches have been observed in the last four days.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A high pressure ridge will affect the area over the next couple of days. Expect dry and clear conditions.

A weak warm front moves in tomorrow bringing rising temperatures and increased winds. East winds will move to the north and gain strength tonight. Expect strong north winds tomorrow.

Wetter conditions may return next week, though there is uncertainty in the forecasts. Stay tuned ...

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 22 22 36 30.5 0 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 10 10 26 20 41 1 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 14 13.5 21.5 16.5 51.2 1 0.09 1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 16 15 19.5 17 5 25 ENE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) down
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 13.5 13.5 25 20 1 6 WSW 35.2 1 0.5
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Thursday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Friday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Mostly clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 29 24 33
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 5-10 North 5-10 North 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Sunny. Low wind chills. Mostly clear, with a rising temperatures and increasing winds. Sunny. Windy.
Temperature (°F) 19 11 23
Wind (mi/hr) East 10-15 North 15-20 North 30-40
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 8.90 13.67 65
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) 6.22 6.31 99
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 46.64 41.67 112

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.