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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-18 06:30

  • EXPIRED ON February 19, 2020 @ 6:30 am
    Published on February 18, 2020 @ 6:30 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

The snowpack is variable, and mostly firm surfaces remain. Avalanche danger is LOW. Use an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if ascending steep terrain. Beware of falling rock. Light winds and warm temperatures will allow for spring-like melt-freeze conditions in sun-exposed areas.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Calm wind and warming temperatures should allow snow surfaces to soften on solar aspects by midday. Firm and variable surface conditions present hazards like long sliding falls that potentially terminate in rocky patches in steep alpine terrain.  Use an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if ascending steep slopes. Solar radiation and warmer temperatures may loosen the hold the snowpack has on rocks. Beware of rockfall above treeline on Mount Shasta, especially above Helen Lake and areas along Casaval Ridge due to large patches of exposed rock. 

Recent Observations

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  • In the last 24 hours, Mount Shasta has received no new snow. 
  • Temperatures have been mostly below freezing. Temperatures poked above freezing, only briefly reaching a high of 33 deg F at 11 AM. 
  • Winds have died off and become light and variable.
  • The snowpack is firm and consolidated with variable surface textures.
  • Shallow, firm, and old wind textured snow with icy patches remain.
  • Dirt and cinders blown from bare patches at higher elevations have collected in depressions and gullies. 
  • No recent signs of instability. 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Calm wind and a trend of warming temperatures have set in due to a thick high-pressure ridge perched off the coast. Dry, clear weather accompanied by cold nights (low 20's) and relatively warm days (high 30's / low 40's) at mid-elevations will continue this week. The calmest winds are expected today and could allow for an extended window of softer snow surfaces. 

Cool and showery weather will return this weekend. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 6:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 24 23 47 33.5 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 19 18 36 27 48 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 22.5 20 33 27 64 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 25 20 31.5 26.5 11 55 N
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 24 23.5 33 27 30 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 19 18.5 29 24 3 16 WSW 46 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Tuesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 40 19 41
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 0-5 Northeast 0-5 East 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Weather Sunny. Clear Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 23 18 20
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 10-15 West 5-10 Southeast 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 12.90 26.49 49
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) 0.12 4.22 3
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 3.97 11.28 35

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.