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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-19 06:30

  • EXPIRED ON February 20, 2020 @ 6:30 am
    Published on February 19, 2020 @ 6:30 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution. Be prepared for a firm snowpack. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if ascending high into the alpine. Beware of falling rock. Clear, dry weather will prevail for the foreseeable future.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
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Avalanche danger is low but stay in the habit of carrying your avalanche rescue gear: a beacon, shovel, and probe. Refresh your skills and practice with them. Pay attention to the weather, snowpack, and terrain. Think about how these elements can affect avalanche concerns. Don't become complacent during the sunny days ahead.

Forecast Discussion

Fair weather is making a winter summit attempt favorable. However, the snowpack is icy and firm. Crampons, an ice axe, and the skills to use them properly are essential. Slide for life conditions exist. Warmer temperatures could dislodge rocks from above. Wear a helmet and keep your heads up.

If skiing is your thing, timing is everything. Pay attention to the sun and wind. Aspects with the longest and most direct sun exposure have seen softening snow, but only briefly - usually between 2 and 3 p.m. Make sure you have sharp edges in case those slopes stay hard. Winds are picking up again and may prevent even the sunniest of slopes from softening.

Recent Observations

In the last 24 hours, Mount Shasta has received no new snow. Temperatures oscillated back and forth between 25 degrees and 35 degrees at 9 a.m. and 6 p.m. Winds were mostly calm and light.

Overall the snowpack is stable, slick, and firm. Ridgelines have icy chicken heads and sastrugis. Bowls and gullies have a widespread, bubble-wrap textured surface.

Wind protected, sun exposed aspects have been softening up briefly between 2 and 3 p.m.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A dry air mass is moving through the region. Expect clear, sunny weather with light to moderate east and south winds.

Similar conditions will continue until Sunday when a modicum amount precipitation is expected.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 24 23 47 33.5 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 19 17 37 26 48 0 0 0.4
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 25 22.5 37 28.5 63 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 24 24 35 28 7 31 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 26.5 22 37 30.5 185.5 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 23 18.5 35.5 26.5 2 7 WSW 45.7 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Wednesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Mostly clear. Mostly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 40 21 42
Wind (mi/hr) East 5-10 East 5-10 Southeast 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather Sunny. Increasing winds. Mostly clear. Windy. Low wind chills. Mostly sunny. Breezy. Low wind chills.
Temperature (°F) 21 21 22
Wind (mi/hr) Southeast 15-20 South 20-25 South 20-25
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 12.90 26.77 48
Month to Date (since Jun 1, 2024) 0.12 4.50 3
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 3.97 11.56 34

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.