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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-22 06:05

  • EXPIRED ON February 23, 2020 @ 6:05 am
    Published on February 22, 2020 @ 6:05 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution. Be prepared for a firm snowpack. Long, sliding falls are possible. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if ascending into alpine terrain. Beware of falling rock, especially in Avalanche Gulch above Helen Lake. Dry, calm and sunny weather will continue today.  A northwest wind event will kick in Sunday into Monday.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Very Likely
  • Size ?
    Very Large

Avalanche danger is low. There are a lot of firm snow surfaces out there and sliding falls on steep slopes remain the primary concern, along with rockfall, especially in Avalanche Gulch above Helen Lake. Plan and prepare properly in regard to terrain, route, group skills and ability and equipment. Snow surfaces re-froze decently last night. Calm wind and good daytime warming will allow snow surface melt. The extent of surface melt will vary slope by slope and depends on cloud cover, wind, elevation, aspect. Loose wet instabilities are not expected to be a problem.  Always stay in the habit of carrying your avalanche rescue gear: a beacon, shovel, and probe. Crampons, ice axe and a helmet are also mandatory for steeper, alpine areas on the mountain. Don't forget to purchase a SUMMIT PASS if ascending above 10,000 feet. 

Forecast Discussion

We've had almost 3 weeks sans meaningful precipitation, days and days of LOW danger and normal caution.  For the month, we've received .12 inches of water, normal is 5.33", only 2% of normal.  We're not alone. Stay strong.

Much of northern California is now running near or below 50% of average precipitation for the season to date.

(NW Climate Toolbox)



Recent Observations

  • In the last 24 hours, Mount Shasta has received no new snow. At 8,000 feet, temperatures ranged between 31 and 41 degrees F, a couple degrees warmer than the day prior. Winds have been calm.
  • Overall, the snowpack is stable, slick, and firm. Ridgelines have icy chicken heads and sastrugis. Bowls and gullies have a widespread, bubble-wrap textured surface.
  • Wind protected, sun exposed aspects have been softening up nicely during the late morning / early-mid afternoon hours.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A nice day of weather with temperatures similar to yesterday and mellow wind. Low pressure moves onshore Sunday morning. Impacts for Mount Shasta will be in the form of wind, cooler temps and perhaps a few clouds. All precipitation will stay north of the area. Wind on the upper mountain could be quite strong late Sunday into Monday. Another extended period of dry weather is expected next week.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 30 27 59 41.5 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 27 26 46 33 47 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 33 31 44.5 36 63 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 34 31.5 41 36 0 6
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 37 33.5 47 40 30 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 32 26.5 42.5 34.5 2 8 WSW 46 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Saturday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Mostly clear Mostly sunny
Temperature (°F) 46 31 40
Wind (mi/hr) North 0-5 Northwest 0-5 West 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
Weather Sunny Mostly clear Mostly sunny
Temperature (°F) 25 23 23
Wind (mi/hr) North 5-10 Northwest 10-15 West 30-40
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 12.90 27.60 47
Month to Date (since Jun 1, 2024) 0.12 5.33 2
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 3.97 12.39 32


This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.