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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-03-02 06:30

  • EXPIRED ON March 3, 2020 @ 6:30 am
    Published on March 2, 2020 @ 6:30 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

The avalanche danger is currently LOW for all elevations and aspects. Be prepared for a firm snowpack. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if making a summit attempt. It's going to be a sunny and windy day. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
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  • Size ?
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Avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution. Stay in the habit of bringing your avalanche rescue gear: shovel, probe, and transceiver. Follow best practices for wilderness and backcountry travel. Carry the ten essentials.

Forecast Discussion

If climbing the mountain, expect firm conditions. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet and know how to use them. Dress for cold, windy weather. Be mindful if you travel in steep terrain below exposed patches of rock on the mountain. Expect rockfall at any time. 

You need a Mt Shasta summit pass if traveling above 10,000 feet, even if you don't plan on going to the summit. A wilderness permit and human waste packout bag are also required. All of these items are available for self-issue at the Bunny Flat trailhead or Mount Shasta Ranger Station. Annual passes ($30) are only available at the ranger station during business hours (Mon-Fri, 8 AM-4:30 PM). 

Recent Observations

A few cold and light snowflakes fell from the sky yesterday morning; however, no measurable accumulation. Temperatures have remained well below freezing averaging 19.5 F near treeline. Gusty north winds have been strong reaching speeds up to 55 mi/hr.

The snowpack continues to be shallow, firm, and dirty, while wind and cold temperatures have the melt-freeze conditions locked up. Pockmarks, wind-sculpted sastrugi, and old tracks texture the snow surface. The snow remaining at higher elevations is sugary, rotten, and eroded from the wind. 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Gusty northerly winds and clear skies are resulting in cold temperatures this morning. Dry air has moved into the area as another high-pressure ridge develops. Drier air tends to warm and cool quickly.  Expect spring-like conditions with warm afternoons and cold nights.  The wind will be northerly and gusty today. 

Sunny and warm conditions come tomorrow and Wednesday. The wind should continue to decrease throughout the week. Currently, the models are looking favorable for a flurry of snow starting Friday night.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 30 30 64 44.5 2 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 23 16 30 24 41 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 39.5 11.5 39.5 21.5 60.3 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 35.5 11.5 35.5 21 21 55 NE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 26.5 17 31 25.5 27.5 0 0.3
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 23.5 15 26 22 3 15 SSE 44.6 0.6 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Monday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Gusty winds. Clear. Gusty winds. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 43 31 50
Wind (mi/hr) North 15-20 North 10-15 North 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather Sunny. Blustery and gusty winds. Clear. Windy. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 33 32 33
Wind (mi/hr) North 40-45 North 35-40 North 30-35
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 12.90 29.76 43
Month to Date (since Jun 1, 2024) T 0.26 0
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 3.97 14.55 27

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.