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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-03-12 06:03

  • EXPIRED ON March 13, 2020 @ 6:03 am
    Published on March 12, 2020 @ 6:03 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution. Spring-like conditions and variable snow surfaces will prevail until the weekend. Steep, sunny slopes may release minor wet, loose snow. Beware of falling rock, especially in Avalanche Gulch above Helen Lake.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Very Likely
  • Size ?
    Very Large

Avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution:

  • Watch for isolated wind slabs and small wet-loose point releases on steep, sunlit slopes.
  • Bring and always be prepared to use your avalanche rescue tools.
  • Practice safe travel techniques when traveling in or near avalanche terrain.
  • An ice axe, crampons and HELMET is advised above 10,000 feet.

Forecast Discussion

In comparison to last season, it sure has been the Yin and the Yang of winters. But dang, its been a hell of a yang.  In terms of life, if this is what the yang is like, I'm in trouble! A poor winter looks to save a little face this weekend. It's not a whopper, but a decent little refresh. Until then, it's the broken record of variable conditions, low avalanche danger and a heads up for rockfall and firm, icy slopes on the upper mountain. 


MSAC snowmobile ambassador Bill Gellor stretches the legs and logs a few turns down Powder Bowl yesterday. [Photo: M Hill]

Recent Observations

In the last 24 hours on Mount Shasta, near treeline temperatures ranged from 34 to 44 degrees. Easterly winds were light with gusts 6-12 mi/hr.

Mediocre skiing and variable snow surfaces exist. Expect a mixed bag of conditions above treeline such as: scoured, firm, icy, moist, breakable, chalky. If you venture into more remote, colder regions (north side of Mount Shasta), you may still find favorable snow below treeline. Aside from some small, thin, loose-wet avalanches and minor roller ball action, no instabilities in the snowpack have been seen.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

The same but different, because no two days are the same! Dry weather will stay in place for the remainder of the week with chilly mornings and mild afternoons. Winds on the mountain will be light to moderate, northerly in nature. Wet weather is still on track for the weekend. Water amounts have been downgraded some, a little over a half inch of water expected at this point. More on this as the time draws near.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 31 28 59 42.5 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 29 28 47 36 37 0 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 35 33.5 48 39.5 58.9 0 0 1.6
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 37 34 44 39 3 18 ESE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 37 37 54 44 29.4 0 1.7
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 37.5 30.5 47 40.5 2 9 WSW 45.5 0 1
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Thursday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Clear Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 50 30 46
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 5-10 Northeast 5-10 Northwest 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Sunny. Clear. Sunny and windy.
Temperature (°F) 29 28 28
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 10-15 Northeast 10-15 West 15-20
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2022 (the wet season) 13.61 32.15 42
Month to Date (since Jun 1, 2023) 0.71 2.65 27
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2023) 4.68 16.94 28


This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.