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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-04-10 06:01

  • EXPIRED ON April 11, 2020 @ 6:01 am
    Published on April 10, 2020 @ 6:01 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Expect overall LOW avalanche danger today. Continue to be mindful of loose wet avalanches due to poor overnight refreeze and warm daytime temperatures. Cornices along ridgelines may also be weak. 
 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

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Warm overnight temperatures and full daytime sunshine will continue concern for loose wet avalanches. Chances are they will be small and insignificant, but nonetheless, even small slides can push you into rocks, trees and over cliffs. Roller balls and pinwheels are indications that larger loose wet avalanches could occur.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornice

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Remaining cornices along ridgelines will become weak during our first major period of warm weather. Identify terra firma by looking for rocks and trees sticking up through the snowpack and plan your travel route accordingly. Cornices can and will break without any warning and can often fracture back further than expected.

Forecast Discussion

The Mount Shasta Avalanche Center will shut its doors this Sunday, April 12th. We will issue our spring statement at that time and see you all over again next year. We will not be publishing climbing condition updates until the statewide state-at-home order has been lifted.  Local trailheads continue to see out of town visitors, especially at Bunny Flat. The Shasta/Trinity National Forest is under COVID-19 Restrictions. Do not come to climb Mount Shasta. Please obey. Stay home. It takes a village. 

Recent Observations

  • In the past 24 hours, temperatures at treeline reached a high of 55 degrees and a low of 41. 
  • E/NE wind has averaged 15 mi/hr with gusts to 37 mi/hr. Snow is not available for transport in most areas. The upper mountain has been scoured.
  • In steeper terrain, minor roller balls and pinwheels observed on protected, sunny below and near treeline slopes.
  • No large avalanches or significant signs of instability observed or reported.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

We will remain under north to northwest flow into the weekend with slightly cooler, near normal temperatures. Blustery, northerly wind can be expected above treeline in the hills and on the big mountain. The extended forecast indicates dry weather. The birds, the bugs and the bees' are out! In just the past few days, it really feels like Spring is here.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 3:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 37 37 71 53.5 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 31 31 56 43 50 0 0 5
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 46 41 55 47.5 86.9 0 0 3.8
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 45.5 43 52 47.5 15 37 NE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 35 35 63 50 46 0 2.2
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 41 41 58.5 49 2 11 SE 61.9 0 4.2
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Friday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Friday Night
(11 p.m. to 5 a.m.)
Saturday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Weather Partly cloudy this morning, then sunny. Mostly clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 53 35 50
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 5-10 Northwest 5-10 Northwest 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Friday Friday Night Saturday
Weather Sunny, blustery. Mostly clear, blustery. Sunny, windy.
Temperature (°F) 31 30 30
Wind (mi/hr) North 10-15 North 10-15 North 20-30
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 17.17 36.47 47
Month to Date (since Oct 1, 2020) 2.00 1.01 198
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2020) 8.24 21.26 39

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.