You are here

Avalanche Forecast for 2020-12-03 06:21

  • EXPIRED ON December 4, 2020 @ 6:21 am
    Published on December 3, 2020 @ 6:21 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

The avalanche danger is LOW. Avalanche activity is not possible at this time due to a thin snowpack. Rock and tree hazards exist above and below the snow surface. Tread lightly, use normal caution and naturally, pray for snow. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely

Overall avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution. Watch out for many not-so-hidden obstacles if cruising around in the snow. Get back into the avalanche awareness mindset. Use safe travel techniques and bring your shovel, probe, and transceiver. Practice using them.

Forecast Discussion

Our first Know Before You Go avalanche awareness presentation will be held virtually via Zoom this Friday, December 4th at 7:00 p.m. Save this link for details.

Companion Rescue will be held Saturday, December 5th. Masks required. Meet outside at The 5th Season store in Mt Shasta City at 9a.m. Rendevous at Bunny Flat after for a half day avalanche beacon and rescue refresher!

All educational offerings by the Mt Shasta Avalanche Center are FREE of charge. If you'd like, you can easily DONATE on our website, anytime, any day. Thanks for being you!

Recent Observations

Season recap up to now.... A winter storm beginning on November 17th brought close to 20 inches of snow to the Old Ski Bowl. About 12-14 inches remains in areas unaffected by wind. Ridges have lost much of their coverage.

The snowpack is right side up. A few crusts are intermingled throughout. Snow surfaces are variable. If you are getting out to enjoy the early season snow, beware of the many obstacles that exist above and below the snow surface. 

There is no usable snowpack at Castle Lake and temperatures have been staying mostly above freezing. Heart Lake is frozen and local backcountry ice scrappers have been enjoying slapping the puck around. Castle Lake and Cliff Lake are not frozen at this time.

Roads are free and clear of snow to Bunny Flat and Castle Lake. The gate is closed at Bunny Flat and snow exists on the road past the gate, up into the Old Ski Bowl. Sand Flat winter trails are open. Cross-country skiing is possible but conditions marginal. 



The local backcountry rink, Heart Lake. Bring a shovel and broom to help clear the ice for the next match! Ice is supportable and the view amazing. No skiing is possible in the Castle Lake area currently. {Photo: Meyers}

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Winter enthusiasts, it pains me to say, don't expect much eyebrow raising news from this section of the forecast for a while. Dry conditions are expected inland with a few high clouds today. Wind will be light. Air stagnation advisories are up in areas of southern Oregon. Stable conditions will continue through the work week. Saturday, a front will approach the area with some confidence that light precipitation will result. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 29 25 49 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 33 33 49 39 9 0 0 3
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 38.5 38.5 56 46.5 14.4 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 38.5 38.5 54 47.5 7 31 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 41 37 47 41.5 7.3 0 0.9
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 40 36.5 49 42 2 4 WSW 10.2 0 0.6
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) n/a
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) n/a

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Thursday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Friday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Mostly sunny Mostly clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 45 34 46
Wind (mi/hr) East/Southeast 5-10 North/Northeast 3-5 East/Northeast 3-5
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Mostly sunny, temps falling, windy Mostly clear, breezy Sunny
Temperature (°F) 33 33 36
Wind (mi/hr) West/Southwest 10-15 West/Northwest 5-10 East/Southeast 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 1.70 7.81 22
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 0.00 0.45 0
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 14.61 35.81 41

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.